How to Build a More Resilient Growth Strategy with Scenario Planning

A Timely Exercise

In 2025, business leaders are grappling with continued uncertainty driven by macro forces such as technological advancements, geopolitical tensions and economic volatility. Forces such as AI disruption, global policy shifts and market fluctuations make it hard to predict which will most severely impact their industry—positively, negatively or not at all. Yet, scenario planning offers a lifeline, enabling leaders to envision multiple futures and prepare for them. In an age of unpredictability, it turns uncertainty into opportunity. 

Best Guessing for Business

Scenario planning is a strategic method to explore possible futures by identifying key uncertainties and developing plausible scenarios. It’s not about predicting one outcome but preparing for many, ensuring businesses can adapt to changes in competitive advantage or demand outlook.

Take, for example, evolving U.S. trade policies and tariffs. These disproportionally affect sectors and companies depending on their global exposure. Businesses with international supply chains or customer bases face heightened vulnerability, while those with a more domestic footprint may see new competitive advantages emerge. Scenario planning allows for visibility into these dynamics, potentially enabling leaders to uncover a new competitive advantage and value capture outlook. 

How to Approach Uncertainty 

Start by pinpointing uncertainties, like tech trends or policy changes. Then develop a set of scenarios that reflect varying degrees of impact. For example: 

• Scenario A: Rapid AI integration accelerates innovation and efficiency. 
• Scenario B: Economic slowdown leads to tightened capital and reduced consumer demand. 

For each scenario, outline strategic implications and prepare corresponding responses, whether that means investing in R&D, restructuring operations or reallocating resources. Regularly revisit these scenarios as new data becomes available. Evaluate both the certainty and severity of each trend to prioritize where your leadership team should focus its attention and scenario planning efforts.

Real-World Success Stories 

At Prophet, we’ve helped clients use scenario planning to navigate complexity and emerge stronger. Here are a few examples:

• A global healthcare company needed a long-term view of the home health market. We developed scenarios examining addressable market size, regulatory changes and competitive dynamics for a 7-10 year future outlook. This work served as a key input to developing a long-term roadmap and strategy to become a successful market marker in the home health ecosystem. 
• A major sweet treat company anticipated disruption from changing food regulations and the growing adoption of GLP-1 receptor agonists. Scenario planning enabled the company to identify strategic pivots that would keep it competitive, compliant and innovative in a rapidly evolving market. 
• For a leading educational services provider, we assessed future demand and market opportunities for AI-powered solutions. This shaped the company’s product development priorities and investment roadmap across its business segments. 

These examples show that scenario planning doesn’t just prepare companies for what’s next—it helps them lead into what’s next.