Will 2022 be the year when the new normal finally kicks in? Will digital transformation in healthcare pick up steam? Who will acquire whom? Will the pandemic finally be behind us or will new variants keep it front and center?

After several tumultuous years in a row, we expect 2022 will bring plenty more disruption, much of it driven by the usual suspects of rising consumer and patient expectations, ever-advancing technology and intensifying perennial pressure to reduce costs and increase access. Per tradition, here are our annual healthcare “hot takes” as we think about the year ahead.

2022 Trends in the Healthcare Industry

We’ll Stop Talking About Virtual Care

Just as cable television and streaming became TV, mobile phones became phones, and  online retail and e-commerce reverted to being plain old retail, virtual care will become just “care.” Increasingly, patients don’t differentiate between telehealth from in-person visits – it’s all just one connected experience of care.

This is partially a semantic development but highlights a critical – and unstoppable – trend. Some residual discussion of omnichannel care will persist, as health systems and providers continue to adjust. But final pockets of resistance will fall; even specialties like dermatology and pediatrics will expand their use of virtual (whoops – you see how hard it will be to stop using that word, but we’re convinced it will happen!).

Labor Shortages Won’t Be Solved with More Healthcare Workers

The talent gap and worker shortages will be recognized as unsolvable – at least with current strategies. There are simply not enough doctors, nurses and paraprofessionals around to fill all the open slots. The same is true of data scientists, experience designers, financial analysts and all the other skill sets that are in huge demand within healthcare and just about every other sector.

Rising wages (especially for nurses) highlight how talent shortages can’t be addressed by simply throwing money at them. According to Mercer, 900,000 nurses are expected to permanently exit the healthcare workforce, causing 29 states to face a shortfall of registered nurses in the next five years.

Seeing that they can no longer simply try to win over more nursing students, healthcare orgs need to embrace new talent strategies. They must find new types of workers they can train to play specific roles. Think engineers-in-training to map out new care pathways or data scientists and AI experts designing diagnostic tools that replace nurses’ intake forms and handle initial reviews on medical images.

Kaiser’s foray into medical education suggests how different the thinking will have to become, though, of course, such capital-intensive approaches won’t be an option for every health system. Digital solutions and smarter workflows that replace steps in care delivery, rather than simply automating routine steps, are also key. It’s a matter of succeeding with fewer workers, an operating model, workforce and tech portfolio that has the flexibility and scalability to deal with future growth.

Home Care and Diagnostics Get More Active and Outcome-Based

Post-Theranos and uBiome, the diagnostics boom continues, but we get no bonus points for predicting that growth accelerates in 2022. After all, diagnostic startups had raised $5.4 billion in 2020 – up 19% from the year before, according to Pitchbook. The prevalence of at-home COVID testing will pave the way for many new classes of tests – from fertility and prenatal to cancer and heart conditions, to stress and hormonal issues.

More significantly, we’ll see an important shift from monitoring to active treatment. For chronic care conditions, patients will become equipped with tools they need to solve common issues on their own and at home. For instance, remote patient monitoring tools will provide automatic alerts to patients (e.g., to adjust medications) and providers (e.g., to trigger nurse visits) when patient conditions deteriorate.

“There’s a device for that” will become a strategic default, as treatments are embedded in – or at least accessible from – monitoring devices.

Behavioral Health Evolves to Be A Standard Workforce Benefit

Employee demand for mental health and wellness will inspire large employers to greatly expand access beyond EAPs and therapy. This evolved employee expectation also prompts HealthTech firms to innovate with a fresh wave of tools and solutions available for providers and patients that seek to identify and address behavioral health challenges before they’re exacerbated, including solutions like Sanvello, an app that uses clinical techniques to help dial down the symptoms of stress, anxiety, and depression.

This momentum is another example of the confluence of trends in the post-COVID landscape; everyone is more aware of the need for better behavioral health monitoring and treatments. And employers navigating the Great Resignation must do everything they can to keep employees.

Pharma Takes the Lead in the Drive to Data Unification

Data unification across healthcare has been an “imagine if” proposition – and a huge barrier to innovation. This year, pharma, with its substantial capital and ability to disrupt at scale, makes a major bet to break through the traditional data hoarding problem.

Pharmaceuticals are primarily motivated by the opportunity to use real-world data (RWD) to inform and streamline drug delivery and development. Specifically, they will find new ways to securely blend and anonymize data from EHRs, home care settings, mobile devices, social media and other sources.

Their success will prompt other players – providers, payers, tech platforms, consumer apps and devices – to establish new standards for sharing and using data. For example, Cerner launched Cerner Enviza to sell EMR data in a secure way while protecting patient identities. Ciox merged with Datavant to help accelerate token adoption and increase usage of RWD and real-world evidence.

Bonus prediction: we might see some regulation shifts to give consumers unprecedented degrees of data control, portability and security. Further good news: all the investments and work on the countless data monetization initiatives underway across the industry are not lost but provide a foundation for future success.

ESG Goes From Feel Good Topic to Uncomfortable Issue in Healthcare

In 2020, there were healthcare heroes everywhere and the industry’s pandemic-fighting efforts were rightly applauded. There was also much discussion about access to care and health equity. In 2022, the media, government and public will once again ask these challenging questions of healthcare organizations. Beyond the normal inquiries into the high cost of care, senior executives will be asked why equity and access have not improved more in the wake of the pandemic and how their organization’s purpose statements play out in day-to-day operations.

Increasing health equity is extremely difficult in a world of thin margins; start-ups will deliver some innovation in the public health space, but it’s clear that the largest incumbents will be challenged to “walk the walk” on health equity in ways that match the considerable amount of talk about it.

Similarly, healthcare’s climate impacts will be increasingly in the spotlight. The industry’s carbon emissions represent about 5% of worldwide totals, according to the New York Times. C-suites and boards will make stronger commitments and clearer plans. Public companies will face especially sharp pressure, as they face up to the reality of ESG ratings and the risk of stock price hits if they are excluded from rapidly expanding ESG index funds.

“2022 will bring plenty more disruption, much of it driven by the usual suspects of rising consumer and patient expectations, ever-advancing technology and intensifying perennial pressure to reduce costs and increase access.”

The tech is ready, but people and talent are just as important. Digital is no longer the domain of just one team. User experiences must be personalized and offer clear benefits.

Those are among the major takeaways from Prophet’s most recent healthcare roundtable on digital transformation. We gather for these discussions several times a year so leaders from different subsectors and functions can compare notes and share insights. A big thank you to our participants:

• Marian Grone, McKesson
• Joseph Ferry, Medtronic Diabetes Group
• Kelsey Yevak, Takeda
• Sheri Rudberg, Hillrom Canada
• George Valentine, Cox
• Xuhui Quan, Abbott Vascular 
• Ken Lerner, UnitedHealth Group

We covered a lot in a little time, but here are the big takeaways – many of which align with the insights found in Prophet Healthcare’s research report.

Five Things to Keep in Mind as Your Healthcare Organization Digitally Transforms

1) There’s No One Right Transformation Strategy

Transformation approaches are as varied as the healthcare organizations trying to transform. If the question is whether to build, buy or borrow, the answer in healthcare is often all of the above.

Healthcare leaders called out that startup acquisitions can be attractive when they provide access to new thinking, talent and ways of working. But the acquiring company must take the right integration approach if it is to overcome cultural barriers and fully realize the value of its investment. One global healthcare leader carefully evaluates talent as part of its acquisition strategy and said that putting “acqui-hires” high-profile leadership positions can signal the organization’s commitment to its digital transformation. Such bold moves are a good way to move the needle on “digital thinking” at the largest organizations.

2) Flexible Solutions and Hybrid Models Suit Varying Needs

Tactical flexibility is necessary to navigate inevitable resistance points. For example, the overnight shift to remote working showed just how quickly organizations could “get digital.” Now it’s a matter of optimizing what works and scaling it. For example, mental health is a natural fit for virtual care, but not for all patients (e.g., those with roommates). Such realities necessitate business models that are both traditional and virtual, rather than either-or.

One healthcare sales leader confirmed that field representatives want to get back out on the road, but also recognized how digital made their lives easier and helped enhance personal relationships. What “location, location, location” was once to retail, “hybrid, hybrid, hybrid” will be to all parts of healthcare.

3) Digital Must Deliver Value

Participants pointed out common links among effective transformation strategies – how they deliver real value to users and solve real-world problems. One leader mentioned digital interactions that provide “a little something extra,” such as access to a community or tools to address common issues (e.g., guides to talking to an employer about a disease).

“Such realities necessitate business models that are both traditional and virtual, rather than either-or.”

Another stated that too much digital content is still brochureware when it should be engaging users with questions about specific needs. While digital transformation is strategically critical, success can – and should – be measured tactically and practically.  It’s not about taking non-digital things and making them digital.  It’s about making things better through the use of digital.

4) Transformation Takes More Than Tech

Healthcare organizations adopted technology at an unprecedented pace in 2020, generally a good thing for a historically slow-moving industry. There’s a risk, however, that some companies may under-invest in other vital people-related capabilities (e.g., user experience design, Agile methodologies, innovation approaches). In some cases, it may be necessary to dust off that tired ­– but still true – warning: “tech is not a silver bullet.”

Leaders want to avoid simply adding more devices. They are looking for tech that simplifies and streamlines. For instance, smart beds that automatically take patients’ vital signs could free nurses to focus on more meaningful tasks. In order to change a behavior, there has to be a clear benefit.

Indeed, behavioral change may be the biggest barrier to achieving scale, according to our group. Consider how it took a global pandemic to overcome caregiver resistance to virtual visits. The technology has been ready for years and patients wanted virtual care, but the power of habit – doing things the way they’d always been done – was too strong. Some leaders are wary that we’ll lapse back into these old patterns post-pandemic, though others are optimistic that medical schools now offer virtual care training for the next generation of physicians.

5) Optimizing The Value of Digital Means Thinking Digital

To build on the momentum of the last year, leaders are looking to optimize what works. For example, enhancing online sessions for new pharma research or treatment options and mandating that some appointments be virtual (e.g., check-ins for prescription renewal or with chronic disease patients). They also called out the necessity of balancing digital marketing and sales efforts with traditional tactics.

Leaders in our roundtable also spoke to the need for specific digital talent (e.g., individuals who can translate business needs into technology requirements). Everyone claims to be agile, but too many projects run into “sprint-stop, sprint-stop” patterns because one leader or stakeholder isn’t on board. Our roundtable participants showed empathy – as well as a few eye rolls and chuckles – about this common experience. Still, everyone agrees the journey to agile must continue and a ‘digital mindset’ from leaders is necessary to accelerate it.