In the fast-changing landscape of the Middle East, strategic investments for sustainable growth and resilience are paramount. With notable advancements in the non-oil economy, diverse sectors are opening up new opportunities for development. The region’s robust economic diversification efforts are positioning it as a leading hub for growth. Organizations need to think holistically as they balance challenges against potential. Those who make the right bets now, navigating those complexities, will yield results that mitigate risks, lead to progress in efficiency and sustainability and improve their employer reputation. 

CEOs should make sure these four priorities are high on their lists:  

1. Navigating EU Green Deal to Unlock Expansion Opportunities   

Many organizations in the MEA are eying market expansion into Europe, which means they must comply with the EU Green Deal that passed in May last year. Some of these issues, of course, are about regulatory mandates. Businesses must invest in sustainability measures to avoid market access challenges. From a compliance standpoint, organizations entering the European market must adhere to the stringent environmental regulations outlined in the deal. Many of these focus on carbon emissions and energy efficiency, which are crucial for market entry.   

But expansion requires thinking beyond regulations. European institutions favor businesses aligned with Green Deal goals. Consumers also prefer businesses that highlight sustainable practices. So do potential employees. Tapping into that environmentally conscious consumer segment means companies should emphasize the many ways they are transitioning to a green economy. Take every opportunity to expand and highlight ways the enterprise focuses on renewable energy, clean technologies and sustainable practices.   

Forward-thinking companies will recognize the EU Green Deal as a two-way street, offering abundant possibilities for transferring technology and innovation. Look for ways to collaborate with European counterparts to foster new solutions. Middle Eastern businesses that can leverage partnerships to enhance their competitiveness in the European market will have a smoother entry into European markets than those that go it alone.   

2. Embracing Sustainability as a Catalyst for Growth  

With international, national and local mandates growing more explicit, it’s easy to continue to view sustainability efforts as a costly drag on profits. That’s short-sighted. For businesses to grow, they need to replace that thinking, enhancing business ecosystems by aligning growth strategies with sustainability.  

Sustainable practices nurture growth. They create a level playing field with companies around the globe and enhance brand reputation. They help attract and retain talent. Middle East businesses can contribute to a greener future and strengthen their resilience and competitiveness by combining growth and sustainability planning.  

In seeking a holistic blend of these initiatives, businesses can look at the bigger universe they operate in, promoting partnerships and interconnectedness. Planning for a future dependent on and interacting with other companies, governments, and community groups makes aligning growth goals with sustainability in clear and measurable ways easier. Goals should encompass carbon reduction and eco-friendly product development.   

3. Fostering Local Growth Amidst Saudi Arabia’s Megaproject Surge  

So many changes are underway in the largest economy in the Arab world that it’s hard to keep up. In keeping with its sweeping Vision 2030, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has stepped up public relations, marketing and communications efforts and is emerging as a top global destination. Last year, the country welcomed more than 100 million tourists, a milestone it had hoped to reach by 2030. That’s a jump of 56% from 2019 and 12% from 2022.  

It has also won plenty of global attention for megaprojects, like NEOM, a $500 billion megacity under development.  

That’s all crucial for the growth of KSA. Yet there seems to be a growing gap in providing sustainable projects that benefit the local population against massive megaprojects. This gap leaves plenty of room for businesses to launch initiatives, better positioning them in this important market, including:   

• Prioritize local hiring of talent in both skilled and unskilled positions, contributing to job creation and economic empowerment.   
• Support skill development initiatives and training programs that enhance the capabilities of the local workforce.   
• Start infrastructure development projects throughout the value chain, which will connect to the vast business needs of megaprojects.  

4. Use Influencers and AI for Human-Centred Marketing  

Using artificial intelligence to power personalization and content creation is a trend that is as big in the Middle East as it is everywhere else. So is the importance of influencer marketing, particularly among larger corporations, and AI makes it possible to dramatically increase its reach.   

We are all for efficiency gains from thoughtfully deployed machine thinking. Yet as companies invest more in technologies, like GenAI for marketing and advertising, a crucial consideration for the Middle East emerges: How can companies maintain a human-centric focus? While consumers in the region are increasingly open to digital options, they’re wary of impersonal bots. They crave a human touch. That means companies need to find a delicate balance that preserves the creativity inherent in human behavior and the next generation of marketing. Even as companies step up investments in AI, they need to run all marketing solutions through customer-centric frameworks. Efficiency can’t come at the expense of genuine human connection.  

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The past four years have been tumultuous, with executives, across industries, forced to navigate market-wide headwinds, high-interest rates and a weakening labor market. Thankfully, the recession many feared, never materialized. Yet, leaders prepared for the worst, with 2023 widely considered the “Year of Efficiency.” Companies minimized and cut costs, optimized productivity and — at times — restructured their organizations to get closer to the market and remain above water.  

However, the tide is shifting, and 2024 is widely regarded as a return-to-growth year in which resiliency will reign supreme. To better understand what is behind this sense of optimism, Prophet analyzed over 50 corporate earnings reports from some of the world’s largest businesses, across industries. 

Our research found that last year’s “doing more with less” strategy paid off for most organizations, creating 85% year-over-year growth in net income across the companies studied. That’s a drastic improvement from similar research we conducted last year, which found a 22% decrease in earnings in 2022. 

Now that companies have optimized their organizations, they are getting back to the basics of growth. They are investing in flexible growth strategies that can endure beyond cost-cutting initiatives and efficiency maneuvers, and, thus, 2024 is shaping up to be the “Year of Resiliency.” 

Five Top Learnings From This Pivotal Earnings Season 

Leaning into Growth, Once Again 

“Efficiency” and “budget cuts” were the flash words that bounced around in the first half of 2023. Now, “innovation” and “expansion” are center stage. This earnings cycle saw exciting announcements for new products, services and experiences that transcend traditional industry boundaries.  

In retail, for example, Target announced Target Circle 360, its new paid membership program. It is pulling a page out of Amazon’s and Walmart’s playbooks and living up to CEO Brian Cornell’s promise of “making sure that we make Target a growth company again.” After Walmart’s year of optimizing, it witnessed a significant 23% year-over-year growth burst in e-commerce sales, bolstered by the announcement of a new B2B purchasing site, Walmart Business. 

Others are also expanding their portfolio of offerings and innovating their go-to-market strategies. Apple is rolling out a new B2B service platform, Apple Business Connect. Pfizer is extending its expertise (and brand) beyond respiratory as it goes deeper into oncology. And Peloton is launching “Peloton for Business.” These expansions represent the beginning of an accelerating trajectory toward growth.  

Embracing GenAI as a Strategic Growth Lever 

Almost all the companies in Prophet’s study say GenAI is a top priority, playing a role in driving not just efficiency but sustainable growth. Major technology players are paving the way, both as exemplars of “moving from talking about AI to applying AI at scale” within their business to launching new products like Microsoft Copilot, Google Gemini, and Amazon Rufus that allow other industries to use AI to power growth.  

EdTech company Chegg is embracing GenAI by developing automated, higher-accuracy question-and-answer services. In entertainment, DraftKings is using GenAI to lower customer acquisition costs and improve its targeting capabilities across its marketing efforts, resulting in it raising its 2024 revenue guidance. In the energy sector, GenAI has helped ExxonMobil leverage automated deep-sea drilling and optimize its widely dispersed field assets, helping it beat earnings expectations. 

To be clear, GenAI faces challenges, with mounting social concerns — and lawsuits — tied to privacy and cybersecurity issues. And then, there are the massive costs associated with training, upskilling and managing new systems. While introducing new technologies into an organization is not new news, GenAI is at a scale that requires massive paradigm shifts for most companies to maximize its positive impact while minimizing the downsides mentioned.  

Harnessing Customer-Centricity to Fuel World-Class Experiences 

Companies with the most substantial potential to break through increasingly competitive interconnected marketplaces are discovering ways to harness technologies to enhance customer-centricity, establish deeper levels of relevance and deliver unmatched value. 

In healthcare, CVS Health realized 11.9% revenue growth by harnessing advanced analytics, machine learning, and process automation to predict customer needs and generate tailored care services, such as its ExtraCare loyalty experience. It provides personalized health and beauty products, and members can choose “benefits that best fit their needs.” MetLife uses advanced technologies to create personalized insurance products that cater to specific customer needs and risk profiles. United Health Group, Walgreens and Cigna are all leveraging technologies to coordinate value-based care, enhance digital offerings and improve the patient experience. As a result of these investments, every healthcare company in Prophet’s analysis beat analyst estimates for revenue and earnings in the fourth quarter. 

In transportation, Ford Motor Company brought in a former Apple executive, Peter Stern, to help adapt to the changing EV landscape and build customer experiences through Ford+. CEO Jim Farley describes that hire as “transformational for this strategically vital part of our business.” 

In another way to get closer to customers, GE HealthCare is acquiring MIM Software to complement Predix, its industrial manufacturing cloud platform. MIM Software’s AI and analytical capabilities across practices are reshaping the possibilities of precision care for patients and providers, enabling GE to “meet customers’ most complex and pressing needs, today and into the future,” says CEO of MIM Software Andrew Nelson, proving once more how customer-driven solutions continue to elevate experiences.  

Driving Next-Generation Employee Value Propositions 

It is no secret the workplace has vastly changed as executives grapple with the COVID-induced remote-hybrid debate, the repercussions of mass lay-offs and quiet quitting and the undeniable risks posed by rapid automation. Executives in Prophet’s analysis believe their talent are the critical lynchpin to driving the transformative growth most are seeking. Accordingly, many companies are backing up their claims with significant investments and shifts in compensation, development and employee well-being. 

The Home Depot’s 2023 decision to invest approximately $1 billion in annualized compensation for its frontline, hourly associates — even in a down year — illustrates the importance of nurturing what it considers its key differentiator: the “Orange Aprons.” This strategic move underscores the company’s recognition that maintaining a satisfied, skilled, and motivated workforce is essential for navigating economic uncertainties and securing sustained growth. It is paying off, too, with meaningful improvement in attrition rates and an increase in its customer service score by 600 basis points. 

In leisure, Hilton adapted to the changing dynamics of work by launching the innovative “Hilton Work Anywhere” initiative. By enabling corporate employees to work remotely from its global network of hotels, Hilton taps into the growing demand for flexibility and remote work opportunities. Comparatively, Cisco focused on building external economic resilience by partnering with global HR services company Randstad to equip over 25 million people with digital skills through Cisco’s Networking Academy. Such partnerships and reskilling programs are pivotal in powering the future of innovation, growth and global competitiveness. 

Moving to Profitable Sustainability Impact 

While sustainability has continued to be a top priority for consumers, more companies in Prophet’s analysis are now proving that “doing the right thing” isn’t the only benefit of pushing an innovative sustainability agenda. For instance, building materials and provider Holcim set a goal of achieving 100% renewable energy in U.S. operations by 2050, and its eco-friendly solution ECOPact concrete, now accounts for 19% of Holcim’s ready-mix net sales. The company is also “driving fast-paced growth in circular construction” through its waste-minimizing ECOCycle practice, helping it differentiate and grow as a leader in sustainable construction. 

Eastman Chemical is working to solidify its position as “a leader in creating a circular economy,” capitalizing on customer demand and growth opportunities by replacing plastics with recycled-content-made products and innovative molecular recycling facilities.  

By embedding sustainability into their core growth strategies and moving beyond 2030 or 2040 Net-Zero Carbon commitments, companies are addressing pressing environmental challenges and positioning themselves as forward-thinking leaders in their respective industries, setting a new standard for corporate responsibility and innovation…and driving sustainable growth. 

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Acknowledgments: Jason Tan, Jane Lee, Zach Lipkin, Mae Mourtisen, Will Littlejohn, Erik Muenster 

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In 2023, businesses in Asia faced significant challenges, including rising costs, economic uncertainties, and persistent inflation. In 2024, C-suite leaders are confronted with the responsibility of driving growth amid tight marketing budgets and increasing cost pressures. 

With a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2024, what should be the top priorities for CEOs and CMOs in Asia to enhance customer relevance and foster business growth? There are four crucial levers to unlock uncommon growth in the coming year: 

1. Optimize your investment allocation across the brand funnel with a focus on generating demand to continually drive conversion and loyalty.
2. Be hyper-focused on your customers – leaders need to shift from a product-centric mindset towards a customer experience-led proposition to capture a larger total addressable market size and customer share of wallet, and shape perception as a market leader. 
3. Adopt a unified marketing operating model to foster effective collaboration and integrated decision-making across business units. This will not only drive synergies but also uncover untapped areas of growth. 
4. Harness the power of AI to supercharge your growth – from uncovering customer insights for strategic investment decisions, to enabling personalised and engaging experiences for customers. 

In this article, we delve into these strategic priorities, helping leaders navigate the evolving market. 

1. Stepping up Demand Generation as the Catalyst to Ignite Growth 

In the post-pandemic era, consumer behaviors have become more intricate and diverse, challenging the traditional way of capturing the dynamic nature of the customer journey. C-suite leaders in 2024 must shift toward an agile growth strategy, with a strong emphasis on demand generation. 

It is now crucial for C-suite leaders to concentrate on demand-driven strategies for engagement, leads, and conversions throughout the entire customer journey. This involves creating an efficient channel mix using an agile approach for data strategies and crafting unique experiences to promote loyalty, advocacy, and repeat purchases. Most importantly, this requires a human-centric growth strategy rooted in consumer insights. 

For instance, AB InBev Korea collaborated with Prophet to gain a comprehensive understanding of the Korean beverage market, aligning with consumer needs to identify growth opportunities. This insight-driven approach guided targeted investments in channels and brand activations, stimulating growth within their portfolio. Similarly, a multinational athletic apparel retailer partnered with Prophet to tailor a marketing effectiveness model for APAC. This data-driven strategy enabled informed decision-making, optimizing their marketing mix across the brand funnel and driving demand in a fiercely competitive landscape, ultimately leading to accelerated growth. 

2024 Priority: Leaders must strategically allocate resources to strengthen demand generation, steering growth strategies based on iterative consumer and market insights throughout the customer journey. This shift will enable marketing efforts to be more effectively aligned to generate demand and propel conversion and loyalty. 

2. Strengthening Full-Funnel Customer Experience to Accelerate Conversion  

Amid economic uncertainties, 68% of leaders in APAC prioritize business resilience by emphasizing customer service. The Asian Banker reported that 77% of satisfied customers actively advocate for the brand, underscoring the pivotal role of customer satisfaction in retaining the existing customer base and fostering sustainable growth. 

As CMOs now assume a more influential role in strategic decision-making, a unique opportunity arises to integrate customer experience (CX) into the organization’s DNA, shifting from a product-centric to an experience-led strategy. At the core of this transformative shift, three key principles should be considered: 

A compelling example of how an experience-led transformation can drive tangible growth is Singapore Airlines’ Kris+. Launched in 2020, Kris+ was conceived as a lifestyle rewards program aimed at engaging users beyond their air travel experiences. Going beyond traditional mileage rewards, Kris+ consolidates a diverse array of rewards, privileges and payment options into a single app. This innovative approach not only provides users with additional opportunities to enhance their shopping experiences both during flights and on the ground but also adds substantial value. Singapore Airlines’ potential customer base has expanded, and Kris+ currently stands as a significant revenue driver for the airline, boasting over 2.1 million downloads globally since inception. 

2024 Priority: An experience-led growth strategy extends beyond the realm of bolstering engagement and loyalty. When executed adeptly, it serves as a catalyst for broadening the total addressable market, augmenting customer share of the wallet, and solidifying the brand’s standing as a market leader.  

3. Achieving More With Less Through a Collaborative Operational Model  

The role of CMOs has undergone rapid evolution, with an escalating demand for them to demonstrate Return on Investment (ROI) and contribute significantly to overall revenue. Consequently, CMOs are now more intricately involved in decision-making processes that span various facets of business strategy, including CX, product, sales, and, in some instances, directly managing these areas. 

For CEOs, establishing robust connections between diverse channels, disciplines, and departments within their organizations is paramount. This not only fosters effective collaboration but also ensures seamless decision-making across different business functions. 

Prophet’s Collaboration Flywheel 

Our research suggests that a progressive understanding of collaboration takes place over three phases. Read more. 

In 2022, Prophet played a pivotal role in supporting Cisco Secure’s transformation of its marketing operating model. The primary objective behind this strategic move was to enhance efficiency and collaboration across different functions. The result was a more defined structure among business functions, both regionally and locally, underscoring the effectiveness of strategic alignment in achieving organizational goals. 

Another noteworthy case is Luckin Coffee, one of the fastest-growing retail coffee chains in Asia. The brand, once on the brink of bankruptcy, was committed to optimizing its operational efficiency and quickly turned itself around within just two years, reporting a 7.2 billion RMB revenue in Q3 2023 and an 84.9% YoY growth. One of the key shifts Luckin took was to evolve CMO Fei Yang’s role to CGO, Chief Growth Officer, to oversee revenue growth, demand generation and customer experience on top of marketing. By integrating user operations and brand marketing, Luckin was able to increase its agility in identifying customer needs, innovating products, launching marketing campaigns and accelerating demand. 

2024 Priority: This strategic approach lies in not only the optimization of resource utilization but also the revelation of untapped avenues for growth across the entire business. By breaking down silos and fostering collaboration among different functions, businesses can achieve a holistic and streamlined approach to decision-making, ultimately contributing to business success and resilience. 

4. Harnessing the Power of AI as a Transformative Force

Generative AI (GenAI) technology has swiftly emerged as a transformative force on a global scale, particularly within the APAC region. An IDC study reveals that 70% of C-suite leaders in the APAC region are actively exploring or have already invested in GenAI. In our recent article, we also highlighted how the capabilities of GenAI can be harnessed for marketing effectiveness. However, the stewardship of human insights and brand strategy remains key.  

While many AI technologies are still in their early stages, capitalizing on this momentum requires cultivating a culture of innovation. This involves not only upskilling teams to adeptly harness AI but also addressing prevailing apprehensions and skepticism surrounding its integration. 

Beyond utilizing GenAI for productivity, equipping the workforce with essential AI skills positions them to unlock its potential, extracting valuable insights from extensive customer and market data. C-suite leaders, in particular, are encouraged to strategically implement AI to enhance customer experiences and customize offerings based on the dynamic and evolving needs and behaviors of their customers. 

An example of embracing AI integration is 7-Eleven Japan’s plan to leverage AI in 2024 to generate text and visual content for new products. Grounded in the analysis of store sales data and consumer feedback via social media, this approach is expected to significantly reduce the time needed for product planning and align product distribution with emerging trends. 

Similarly, Disney has been a trailblazer in incorporating technology, utilizing data from wristbands, IoT sensors, and strategically placed cameras around its resorts. This data-driven approach empowers Disney World operators to identify and address overcrowded areas, offering personalized promotions to encourage customers to move to less congested spaces based on their preferences. Looking ahead, the prospect of Disney using GenAI to enhance personalization, such as anticipating customers’ dietary needs before they enter restaurants, adds an exciting dimension to its growth trajectory. 

2024 Priority: As AI technologies continue to advance, it is imperative for organizations to possess a comprehensive understanding of AI, supported by clear guidelines and policies. This ensures the quality and reliability of AI-driven insights, thereby facilitating informed decision-making in an increasingly dynamic business landscape. 

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Imagine a world where roads hum with electric vehicles (EVs), a vision that is rapidly turning into reality in many parts of the world. The global EV market isn’t just growing; it’s catapulting into a new era of innovation and opportunity. It’s far more than the $1.6 trillion realm of manufacturing EVs, batteries, and charging infrastructure. A more compelling question to ask is, “Which industries stand to benefit from this transition?”  

Simply put: Which industries will be disrupted and who will benefit from this global shift towards EVs to drive business growth?  

In this article, we broaden the aperture to focus on the $9 trillion opportunity (a figure based on Prophet internal modeling) that we estimate will exist across a diverse range of industries that can harness the EV transition as a driver of growth and innovation for years to come.  

The EV Transition has Become a Business Reality 

We’ve applied the shift in consumer behavior towards the transition to EVs and found that there is more than $9 trillion in opportunity if you examine not just the transition itself, but the ripple effect it creates across connected industries. 

Regardless of where one might fall on the political spectrum when it comes to ESG, sustainability, and the transition to the electric economy – consumers’ shift to adopting EVs has moved from being a political debate to a business reality.   

An increasing number of countries have crossed what many are calling the ‘tipping point’ for EV adoption, where EVs account for more than 5% of new car sales – with 23 countries already having reached this milestone. Attempting to estimate the number of EVs on the road in the next few years leads to more unanswered questions, with history showing that once the adoption of technology hits the “tipping point”, growth can quickly become exponential. 

Turn on a sports game or YouTube video, and you can’t help but notice how car companies have increasingly been focusing their advertisements on EV products. Top auto manufacturers have been embracing the enthusiasm for EVs even before they can catch up on production, with 10 EV ads during the last two US Super Bowls alone, and several more EV ads planned for this year’s Super Bowl in 2024. Looking to more digital channels, YouTube ad spending to promote EVs was up 8X over in 2023. 

The Transition to an Electric Future 

The transition to electric vehicles is accelerating despite the many debates about how quickly they will be adopted. The amount of capital being poured into start-ups, infrastructure, and the needed recycling providers has created somewhat of a gold rush beyond solely EV production – with venture capital investment in the space up 50% in 2022 to over $1bn, led by a focus on charging, recycling, and other less flashy but critical components of the EV value chain. Over the last several years, governments around the world have committed huge sums of money to rapidly accelerate the electrification of their economies – with billions of dollars from the recent Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. allocated to help accelerate EV production and build the needed charging infrastructure.   

2030 Outlook: EVs Reaching 10% of Total Cars on Road?  

Our sustainability team has carefully considered how the global shift to EVs will not just affect the auto industry, but also the myriad of interconnected brands and businesses who should be paying attention to this change as a potential driver of growth.  

Taking even the most conservative estimates, EV sales are predicted to account for over 30% of all global vehicle sales in 2030 – a far more modest estimate than the 50% of new car sales goal set forth by the White House for 2030.  

Simply put, that means roughly 10% of the total cars on the road will be EVs in 2030.  

The predicted large-scale changes in consumer behavior will generate massive ripple effects, forcing companies to decide how to adapt their business models, experience strategies, and value propositions. So how might this shift disrupt the many interconnected industries – Will this mean 10% fewer gas stations are needed? 10% less traditional auto mechanics? Fast casual dining at charging stations versus fast food at gas stations?   

“If 10% of the total cars on the road are EVs, how might this shift disrupt the many interconnected industries that will feel its ripple effects? Will this mean 10% less gas stations needed? 10% less traditional auto mechanics?” 

2030 Outlook: The EV Transition’s Impact on Three Key Groups 

The Ripple Effect of a 10% EV Shift 

Even taking this modest growth estimate, imagine the transformative wave the global shift to EVs will unleash. As we delve into this electric future, we need to answer three pivotal questions: 

1. Who will innovate and produce EVs?
2. Who will provide cutting-edge services for EVs?
3. Where will the EV journey take you – from driving to parking?

This exploration simplifies how to envision the EV future, slicing through the buzz to spotlight real growth opportunities. We highlight a few trailblazing industries in each category, poised to seize the monumental opportunities born from the EV wave. 

Innovators and EV Manufacturers  

This sector, the birthplace of EVs, is hoping to become a $1.6 trillion industry by 2030. This number is comprised of a mix of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), charging pioneers, and battery innovators. For this group, one of the largest challenges will be rapidly scaling battery production and charging infrastructure to meet soaring demand. This necessity serves as a golden opportunity for growth.  

Key Insights: 

• Unlikely alliances are flourishing in the EV realm. Competitors are uniting, which resonates with consumers who applaud this shared mission for sustainability. This collaborative spirit to achieve a “common goal” is redefining brand relationships for the long haul. 
• The EV industry’s trajectory is highly dependent on governmental support. As political landscapes shift so do opportunities and challenges. Brands in this space must stay agile, ready to pivot with changing policies and funding sources. 

Example 1: Partnering to Build Efficiency Across the Grid 

BMW, Ford, and Honda recently announced a new joint venture called ChargeScape, aimed at creating a single way to connect electric utilities, automakers and EV customers. This collaboration seeks to create a unified platform for efficient energy management, connecting bidirectional EV charging with electric grid operations. If successful, ChargeScape could be a game-changer, exemplifying how partnerships can spark growth and innovation in the EV sector. 

Example 2: Competitors Collaborating to Charge Up America 

A surprising number of global automakers have partnered together to address America’s charging network challenges, namely, the lack of a reliable and expansive charging network. This ambitious joint venture plans to establish over 30,000 chargers across North America, complementing Tesla’s existing network and contributing to the national goal of 500,000 chargers by 2030. This collaboration showcases how competitive brands are aligning their interests for a sustainable future. 

Service Providers for EV 

Beyond manufacturing, we have the many industries that will service EVs, a group of industries ripe with a $2.8 trillion opportunity by 2030. From renewable energy champions to auto-repair and fleet management innovators, these industries are gearing up for an EV-centric future. 

Key Insights: 

• Long-term visionaries are investing boldly. Despite short-term uncertainties in EV adoption forecasts, large firms are strategizing about how to effectively harness the full potential of this transition. 
• Adaptability is key. Companies like Shell and BP have demonstrated that transitioning from traditional revenue streams to embracing the EV shift is not only necessary but a strategic move to remain relevant. 

Example 1: Shell Focuses on a Low-Carbon Future 

Shell is actively steering its brand towards a low-carbon future, aligning its thoughtful approach to building their new purpose with evolving energy market demands. Through comprehensive research and substantial investments between $10-15 billion by 2025, Shell is delving into low-carbon solutions like hydrogen, EV charging, and biofuels. They are already seeing success, with their UK EV-only service station witnessing a 44% utilization increase since 2022. Shell has been investing heavily in the EV transition and its focus on expanding its EV charging network is paying off, as evidenced by EV customers visiting more frequently and spending more. This significant shift reflects Shell’s commitment to leading in the global transition to renewable energy. 

Example 2: Bridgestone Mobility Solutions Launches EV Services Platform 

You might know the name Bridgestone from the globally famous tire brand; however, in recent years the company has expanded its offerings to be focused on mobility and solutions. As part of this transformation, Bridgestone recently announced the launch of an EV Services Platform “to make electrification easier, cheaper, and faster for fleets”. This platform is intended to help fleet managers, EV service suppliers, and drivers alike by creating a more efficient EV service ecosystem that helps manage costs and simplifies the process of using EVs as part of a commercial fleet. 

The New Destinations for Your EV 

Lastly, we explore industries less directly impacted by EVs but poised to innovate and capitalize on this shift. This group has the potential to capitalize on the increasing number of EVs and encapsulates a staggering $4.9 trillion opportunity. 

We focus on quick-service restaurants, convenience stores, and smart home providers. These industries are where EVs will likely spend significant time, especially considering the pivotal role of ‘Smart Homes’ in the EV charging ecosystem and the amount of time cars spend parked. The challenge for these businesses is more than installing chargers; it’s about reimagining consumer engagement and evolving business models in the EV era. 

Key Insights: 

• Many brands are enthusiastic about joining the EV movement but lag in aligning their operations with their climate pledges. The real work lies in transforming business models to sync with their environmental commitments. 
• A rich opportunity exists in deeply understanding the EV consumer. Pilot projects and test-and-learn initiatives are underway but grasping the unique nuances of EV consumer behavior – from charging habits to travel and purchase patterns – remains an uncharted territory ripe for exploration. 

Example 1: Fast Food Is Getting in on the Action 

Fast food chains are already beginning to direct their attention to the EV shift in road trip transitions. Subway announced a new pilot, the Subway Oasis, partnering with Gen Z EV Solutions to blueprint what the future of Subway EV charging stations may look like. The Oasis will include Wi-Fi, picnic tables, and green spaces – intending to appeal to the eco-conscious consumer – as well as their EV chargers. While this approach is unique, Subway is not the first company to explore this idea; Taco Bell and Starbucks have begun to pilot their own EV charging solutions, with each brand piloting charging stations at their locations with the intent of seeing how it might drive revenue and customer growth. 

Example 2: Schneider Electric Creates ‘Schneider Home’ App 

The French multinational company, Schneider Electric, recently shared its newest innovation, Schneider Home – an all-in-one smart system with the aim to consolidate the home energy needs of the future. Consisting of solar power, battery backup, EV charging, home automation and connected switches, the ‘Schneider Home’ allows you to visualize your energy use and customize your habits via their app. 

Schneider Electric exemplifies a company that has begun to successfully align its brand purpose, value proposition, and product offerings in the market. With the brand’s purpose of “empowering all to make the most of our energy and resources,” Schneider Electric has moved past articulating a future ambition and is actively expanding the transition to a more sustainable energy future, which includes a push from Schneider into eMobility solutions and the Schneider Home. 

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ESG is not just a feel-good initiative – it is a vital part of business and employee engagement strategies that drive growth in a world that increasingly needs businesses to address pressing global challenges.  

Companies face pressure from multiple stakeholders to be more socially and environmentally responsible while being transparent about that progress. While there is a continued push by consumers and employees, regulators and investors are also pushing harder for ESG. The EU now requires companies to publish reports on the social and environmental risks they face (with the US not too far behind). 

As a result, businesses have begun to invest more seriously in delivering against their ESG ambition and targets – aiming to create a tangible impact. But as the ESG focus strengthens, there is often a gap – between how companies perform on ESG, and what customers perceive of a company’s ESG strategy. 

Evaluating the ESG Gap 

The ESG performance vs. ESG perceptions gap is based on two questions: 1) How well is my company performing on ESG? and 2) How do customers perceive we’re doing on ESG?  

The glaring discrepancy between these two questions has fueled the rise of “greenwashing” or “purpose washing” accusations against some companies, while the reconciliation of this gap has generated growth by leaning into customer preferences. As a result, it’s urgent that companies understand and evaluate their gap to maximize their ESG impact and tap into new opportunities. 

Note: Dots represent industries and companies included in the Prophet analysis.

Figure 1: ESG Performance vs. Perceptions example

ESG Performance 

In addition to companies’ internal reporting, a wave of third-party ESG metrics and ratings (e.g., MSCI, S&P ESG Scores) have emerged. These scores measure how well a company addresses and manages risks in the areas of environmental, social, and governance. As a result, ESG scores should provide an unbiased, comparable view of a company’s ESG exposure to guide investors. 

While these metrics aren’t perfect – they often leverage incomplete data and standard measurement processes have yet to be implemented – they provide much-needed visibility to external stakeholders and comparability across companies and industries. 

ESG Perceptions 

ESG performance scores measure what a company is doing across ESG initiatives – it’s another effort to be recognized and rewarded for that investment by consumers.  

While many factors affect brand perception, companies are starting to integrate customers’ ESG perceptions into their analysis as ESG becomes a purchase influencer. For example, products making ESG-related claims averaged 28% cumulative growth over the past five-year period, versus 20% for products that made no such claims. Companies can look at data (like the Prophet Brand Relevance Index ®) to better understand what consumers think of their brands. 

Using performance scores and customer perceptions of ESG, companies can start to understand if they are successfully communicating how their ESG agenda translates to additional value. Alternatively, these metrics can help companies determine if their words are ahead of their actions and if they are at risk of greenwashing or virtue signaling.  

The Framework 

By identifying the gap, companies can diagnose where they are in their ESG journey and the next steps for progress: Are they slow to adopt ESG and need to integrate it into all functions? Are they perceived by customers to be performing well on ESG but not living up to it? Do they have robust ESG programs but aren’t publicly recognized for them? Or are they ESG leaders? 

To better illustrate the gap, we mapped customer perceptions and ESG performance scores, identifying four quadrants that companies may occupy. We will take a closer look at the automotive and retail industries, both of which have organizations that occupy all quadrants. 

Overall, one theme emerges: Companies need to do better on ESG, both in establishing and executing ESG commitments and initiatives and sharing that progress openly with stakeholders. 

Figure 2: ESG Performance vs Perceptions: Automotive Industry

Figure 3: ESG Performance vs Perceptions: Retail Industry

Leaders (HIGH Performance/HIGH Perceptions) 

What this means: Companies here are both performing well on customer perceptions and ESG performance scores. Some of them have found strong alignment between elements of ESG and their businesses. Others have leveraged an element of their business (a product or a component) to build credibility with consumers around an area of ESG (e.g., using recycled or renewable materials in a new product). Overall, these companies are born out of purpose, intertwining their ESG strategies with business strategies. 

Who we’re seeing in this space: This is an aspirational quadrant not characterized by any one industry. The few inhabitants often represent the best of their category, having typically established ESG precedents for their industries.  

For retail (see figure 3), Adidas, Sephora, Etsy, and Athleta live here. Sephora is known for integrating DE&I thinking not only into its internal culture and employee operations but is also committed to ensuring that its products are sourced from diverse businesses. It was the first retailer to dedicate at least 15% of shelf space to Black-owned brands and commissioned the first-ever large-scale study on Racial Bias in Retail to improve the shopper experience.  

What to do if you’re here: Continue to make sustainable and socially responsible products, services, and investments in ESG. By seeking industry collaboration, companies can bring others along on the journey and strengthen the category. But while it’s great to have established leadership, companies here will need to be vigilant and make their leadership positions defensible. Other companies will see the benefit of being known as strong ESG performers and will strive to replace the current leader. 

At Risk (LOW Performance/HIGH Perceptions) 

What this means: This quadrant is characterized by high customer perceptions of ESG in contrast to low performance on ESG. ESG may be well integrated into the brand story through messaging, but there hasn’t been strong progress in delivering on that narrative.  

Some are purpose-native companies that made ESG a core part of their brands, benefitting from the halo effect from their origin story, despite being unable to enact a robust ESG strategy as they scale. Other companies include strong consumer brands with ESG-friendly elements, but company performance on ESG doesn’t match.  

As a result, companies here are at risk of being labeled as “greenwashing” or “virtue signaling” if customers realize the company’s ESG initiatives amount to statements with little evidence to back them. 

Who we’re seeing in this space: Some companies may be unable to scale their ESG performance to align with their words. For example, Tesla (see figure 2), nearly synonymous with EVs as the pioneer in the space, was born out of the purpose to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable, clean energy. However, despite this clear mission, the company has struggled to make strides in other facets of ESG – Tesla was removed from the S&P 500 ESG Index because of issues of racial discrimination within its workplace. Its CEO is famously outspoken for his anti-ESG rhetoric. 

What to do if you’re here: Assess where to improve or build strategies to deliver on ESG promises and customer expectations. Commit to bold moves against top risks to show progress and authenticity.  

To avoid widening the gap, companies should evaluate the validity of any explicit ESG claims in their messaging to ensure that they are staying true to their statements. ESG performance should be prioritized over ESG perception building. 

Invisible Innovators (HIGH Performance/LOW Perceptions) 

What this means: Companies here are performing well on ESG but aren’t recognized for their progress by consumers. This could stem from 1) not communicating ESG strategies to external stakeholders, 2) not coordinating ESG excellence with brand and marketing, or 3) believing that their customers might not prioritize ESG when they search for and purchase products. Some companies, like a QSR or CPG food company, might even be plagued by category stigma developed over years of a tarnished reputation. 

We also see more consumer awareness of social and environmental efforts in lifestyle, fashion and entertainment categories – consumer-facing brands that play prevalent roles in culture and identity – rather than functional brands in the appliance and food categories. ESG expectations will also vary by the category of the issue. For example, some customers may think a transportation company should prioritize environmental issues over social issues.  

In figure 1, we see a relationship between low ESG performance scores and low ESG data availability – illustrating that without robust data sets for third-party ratings, companies’ ESG scores will ultimately be hurt.  

Who we’re seeing in this space: When we look at the rest of the automotive industry (see figure 2), there is an intriguing contrast with Tesla. There is a cluster of auto companies including Volkswagen, Mazda and BMW that have higher ESG performance scores but lower customer perceptions of ESG. This illustrates the necessity of not only delivering on ESG ambitions but communicating them well.  

For example, BMW established clear goals such as reducing CO2 emissions by over 40% by 2030 and meeting climate neutrality no later than 2050. Additionally, the company aims to have 10 million fully electric vehicles on the roads by 2030, with all vehicles able to be fully recovered and reused for circularity. However, BMW’s lower customer perception of ESG illustrates that customers don’t know what BMW is doing to leave a positive impact on the environment, potentially leaving environmentally conscious consumers out of reach. 

What to do if you’re here: Companies should build connectivity between their ESG and brand narratives for a cohesive story that touches all stakeholders. They should also start sharing their ESG data more openly to socialize their performance. If their brand is rooted in ESG, then they should follow up with the numbers to support it. 

Companies should increase collaboration between the Chief Marketing Officer and the Chief Sustainability Officer. Shine a bright light on the elements of ESG that consumers care about. If companies don’t know if or what they care about, they need to find out.  

Laggards (LOW Performance/LOW Perceptions) 

What this means: Companies here are underperforming on ESG and are perceived poorly by customers with respect to ESG. This may mean that these companies still see ESG as a siloed function (like Corporate Social Responsibility) in the business. Companies here may also be in an industry where no player is focused on delivering against ESG. Or the company is lagging, relative to its more ESG-progressive peers.  

As a result, there is ample opportunity to establish a strong foundation for growth in all areas of ESG. 

Who we’re seeing in this space: Typically, larger, legacy companies – especially those whose businesses seem foundationally at odds with ESG – may run into these ESG challenges because they are slower to adapt. For example, the apparel and fashion industry (see figure 3) – which is responsible for 10% of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and 20% of global wastewater – is now scrambling to reduce its environmental impact against the backdrop of the harsh effects of climate change.  

Macy’s is one of the country’s most storied department stores, founded over 150 years ago. As the store looks to set itself up to rectify years of flagging sales, it has turned to ESG to fuel its future. In 2022, Macy’s announced that it will spend $5 billion by 2025 on three pillars of social purpose – people, communities, and the planet – to help shape a more equitable and sustainable future. Legacy companies like this are now realizing that success in the future is tied to meeting the needs of customers and employees, who want the organizations they purchase from and work for to be socially responsible. 

What to do if you’re here: Look for quick wins to establish a foundation for ESG. Try to move performance first, but also evaluate the need to shift perceptions. Start sharing ESG data more openly to socialize ESG performance with stakeholders, emphasizing a commitment to accountability. 

Set an ESG ambition and agenda to identify the next steps to start delivering on their goals. A transformation plan can help outline how a company must change for this new chapter of growth. Additionally, join industry or issue-based coalitions to build understanding, commitments, and relationships. 

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METHODOLOGY

ESG PERFORMANCE SCORES: In our analysis, we used 2022 S&P ESG scores to identify companies’ performance on ESG. Unlike ESG datasets that rely simply on publicly available information, S&P Global ESG Scores are informed by a combination of verified company disclosures, media and stakeholder analysis, and in-depth company engagement via the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment (CSA).  

CUSTOMER PERCEPTIONS OF ESG: To determine customer perceptions of companies’ ESG performance, we leveraged our 2022 Prophet Brand Relevance Index ® (BRI) data. The BRI measures brand relevance – relevance encompasses all the elements required for a strong brand and healthy bottom line, including high demand, strong appeal and products and services that add value to a consumer’s life. 

Prophet asked more than 13,500 consumers in the U.S. about the brands that matter most in their lives today. We measure their relationship to 293 brands in 27 categories, looking closely at 16 attributes. 

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In the face of increasingly complex compliance requirements and growing economic turbulence, a robust ESG strategy has become indispensable for a company’s growth. While today’s corporations often operate in structured and specialized siloes, a successful ESG strategy requires heightened collaboration across all stakeholders in order to find solutions to complex challenges. In our work, we found that companies prioritizing ESG initiatives often excel at identifying innovative solutions to unlock growth opportunities. 

Cecilia Huang, a former partner at Prophet, sat down with TS Wu, chief sustainability officer of ASUS Group, to discuss how ASUS imbues a strong purpose and ESG strategy into its organizational culture to drive uncommon growth. 

CH: In recent years, the technology industry emphasizes more sustainable growth while confronting various challenges, such as compliance requirements and market shifts. What measures has ASUS taken to overcome these challenges as well as elevate its ESG strategy? 

TW: I have seen in the past few years that societal topics such as environmental protection have become increasingly mainstream, and ESG strategies and organizational resilience are more valued. However, there are still many challenges that businesses need to identify and solve urgently. Externally, meeting compliance standards and consumer demands to remain competitive requires rapid iteration; internally, organizations face issues such as talent retention, innovation, brand building, and profitability. 

In order to meet these challenges and effectively integrate ESG, ASUS has implemented three major initiatives: 

1. First, from “maximizing the interests of stockholders” to “maximizing the value for stakeholders”: In the past, ASUS focused on maximizing stockholder value. But now, we recognize that for a business to achieve long-term success, it must meet the expectations of all stakeholders.  
2. Second, from “emphasizing technology” to “emphasizing purpose”: The guidance of organizational culture is crucial. Chairman Jonney Shih has always insisted on promoting ASUS’ “authentic and pragmatic” culture internally. He once shared the book, The Heart of Business by Hubert Joly, former CEO at Best Buy, which advocates for leadership and business that starts from the heart. Such a culture allows ASUS employees to focus less on external awards and recognition and more on the original intent and vision of the company. We have been following this philosophy to garner enthusiasm towards ESG, building our strategy from the inside out. 
3. Third, from “passively avoiding risks” to “actively achieving sustainable growth”: In the past, our focus for ESG has been on risk reduction and legal compliance. Now we are going a step further, with an eye on brand growth and adapting to the future. We’re working to proactively create shared value through the development of ESG strategies that promote sustainable growth. 

CH: When did ASUS’s commitment to ESG begin? What experiences can you share from what ASUS has learned over the years? 

TW: ASUS has undergone six stages towards developing our ESG strategy.  Starting in 2002 the seeds of ESG were planted at ASUS. Customers began paying more attention to product sustainability. We set up Green ASUS under the Quality Assurance Center to meet the demands of the market and our customers. Subsequently, in 2008, ASUS established the ASUS Foundation to invest more actively in social impact programs in order to improve our corporate image and reputation. 

The turning point was in 2010 when ASUS transitioned from passive involvement into active efforts. We proposed standards for ourselves that were higher than industry regulations and sought to bring more environmentally friendly products to customers, with the aim of gaining a greater competitive advantage and penetrating a broader international market. In 2016, we went a step further and embedded sustainability as a parameter in product design, process transformation, organizational design, supply chain management and other processes, formally incorporating ESG into our strategy. 

Now, based on the existing foundation and achievements, we are exploring how ESG can become an important pillar of our company’s future strategic growth. 

After undergoing the six stages of ESG transformation, we understand how to deal with various challenges and recognize the importance of making ESG a core strategy on its own. By setting up a dedicated department and adding the role of chief sustainability officer, we’ve created a culture that allows different departments across the company to understand the importance of ESG, enables experts to help advise on and implement initiatives, and deeply roots ESG within ASUS. 

CH: You mentioned that ASUS’s leadership places great importance on the original intent of the company. What role do they play in driving ESG across the organization? 

TW: I believe the role of leaders in the early stages of ESG development is far greater than in the later stages. Leaders can guide the organization early on and ensure its implementation is not just a superficial branding project. 

At ASUS, our chairman and CEO both lead by example, personally participating in the ESG committee to discuss ASUS’s sustainable business strategy and philosophy. Employees understand that the leadership greatly values ESG Therefore, each department incorporates ESG accordingly and soon sees the benefits of ESG in building the business, thus forming a positive feedback loop. 

Different departments will invite the sustainability team to participate in their strategic planning with the hope that the success of new products will not only come from new functionalities but also from the sustainable features in product design. To us, this signifies real change. 

CH: ASUS’s “Engineering Spirit” is unique. How does it relate to ESG initiatives? How do the two influence each other? 

TW: “Engineering Spirit” is the DNA of ASUS’s organizational culture, and our ESG strategy is connected to it in two ways. 

The first is data-based measurement and technology-centric management. This means that the benefits of sustainability-related actions can be evaluated and managed through quantifiable indicators. Taking environmental profit and loss assessment as an example, ASUS quantifies the air pollution, water pollution, greenhouse gas, and waste pollution generated throughout the process of laptop computer production. This allows us to understand the environmental impact of suppliers in each segment of the value chain and helps us optimize resource allocation. In addition, this initiative allows us to clearly convey to stakeholders ASUS’s emphasis on sustainable growth and the value it brings to society through real and visible figures. 

The second is design thinking. In this realm, we pursue the concept of “beautiful, practical, and environmentally friendly,” and incorporate products’ design, weight, thinness, and ESG dimensions into product parameters. We resolve conflicts through technology and design thinking to find the optimal solution. 

As a result, the focus on sustainability has permeated ASUS’s product design, process design, organizational design, and supply chain management. Its importance is highly valued at each stage of the process. 

CH: Lastly, in terms of organizational management, how should companies build a better future through improved organizational processes, values, and talent development? 

TW: I believe a shift in strategic and operational thinking is key. While competition is inevitable, a change in mentality is essential. Organizations in the past emphasized the division of labor and efficiency, but ESG-led organizations emphasize collaboration and connection. Therefore, ASUS’s ESG department plays the role of a facilitator and guide across the organization, rather than a commander. We never require other departments to replicate successful cases. Instead, we use them as experience sharing and a knowledge base, so that each team can reasonably choose resources and invest pragmatically based on real business conditions, ultimately promoting sustainable growth across the company. Externally, ASUS also cooperates with other technology companies to launch a Climate Partnership, with the goal of working jointly on issues that cannot be solved by a single company. 

Furthermore, talent is indispensable to ESG.  We do two things to cultivate our talent development. First, we encourage independent innovation. In our organizational design, ASUS gives individuals greater autonomy to foster innovation. Second, we cultivate interdisciplinary talent. We believe that it is very important to develop employees that can coordinate and integrate different domains, especially for ESG-oriented organizations. As an organization, we are committed to shaping our employees from specialists into generalists, connecting fragmented knowledge and creating higher value. 

Finally, establishing values is very important. To quote our chairman: “Long-term profitability is the standard by which the market measures the success of a company. What truly outstanding companies have in common is that they have a clear business philosophy and consistent values, and they know how to communicate with key stakeholders. When an organization can think deeply, redefine the role of sustainability, and use its unique core capabilities to meet the needs of the environment and society, the performance of the company will be even more outstanding.” 

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Corporate earnings this season are particularly unique. A global recession, the war in Ukraine, and a virus that is still disrupting normal life are among the many factors affecting businesses small and large, resulting in the first quarterly earnings decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Leaders are navigating difficult waters as they are tasked with facing the swirl of the macro-economic environment, moving forward from layoffs and identifying new growth opportunities — all whilst budgets are being slashed across industries. Despite this, there are many positive signals stemming from the recent earnings as many leaders are optimistic about a return to normalcy in 2023. 

Prophet looked at close to 100 quarterly earnings results, across varying global industries and sectors, to understand the key drivers of growth, headwinds facing leaders and strategies to move forward in 2023. Here are our learnings on what earnings season could mean as we try to regain balance, agility and growth acceleration in arguably the least predictable time in recent history. 

Top Learnings From This Remarkable Earnings Season

1. No industry or organization was shielded from the impact of a sour macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, with many reactively cutting costs to preserve margins. 

This is a lackluster earnings cycle for most, with “headwinds” as the key buzzword and an average -22% earnings-per-share decline from Q4 2021. In 2022, businesses optimized for pandemic-fueled growth were forced to adjust to a down-market driven by global inflation, foreign exchange fluctuations, COVID lockdowns in China and additional supply chain disruptions.  

As a result, leaders became laser-focused on cutting costs, managing risk and re-evaluating their business model. Banks, for example, are stowing away billions of dollars to protect against rising loan defaults; Harris Simmons, chief executive officer at Zion Bancorporation commented, “We continued to build our loss reserves due to both continued loan growth and the prospect of a slowing or recessionary economic environment in coming months.” Investors are bullish that inflation will slow in 2023, but businesses are managing risk and going lean to prepare for continued pressure. 

2. Despite a harrowing cry that “2023 will be a year of optimization and efficiency”, businesses are sharply committed to returning to growth in 2023. 

While headlines have focused on streamlining costs, the real takeaway from this earnings cycle is what leaders are laser-focused on: improving top-line growth. Many executives highlighted strategies to remain relevant and stay ahead of the competition, such as improving product quality, bringing new offerings to market and investing in customer experience. 

Consumer packaged goods are one of the many industries where executives are investing more in sales and marketing tactics to improve competitive positioning, enhance product superiority, and ensure price increases stick. For example, Mike Hsu, chief executive officer at Kimberly-Clark attributed organic growth in the quarter to “improving our product offering and market positions,” and plans to increase the investment in advertising to “grow the category for the long term”. 

Those who have already been executing these strategies saw unprecedented levels of revenue and customer growth in 2022 — even in a recessionary environment. In fact, Prophet found an 8% average year-over-year growth in revenue for the quarter that ended in December 2022. 

3. Executives are using this downturn as an impetus for transforming their business and reinventing their brand. 

The data is in. Similar to what we saw coming out of the COVID-19 downturn, executives across industries are moving from reactive adaptation to proactive transformation. 2023 has become a fertile breeding ground for brands seeking to drive sustainable, purposeful, and transformative growth. Noel Wallace, chief executive officer at Colgate-Palmolive described how they are betting big on digital transformation as they have now “shifted [their] resources to deliver more breakthrough and transformational innovation” and are confident that, “despite macroeconomic conditions worldwide, we are executing against the right strategy and are well-positioned to deliver sustainable, profitable growth in 2023 and beyond.”  

In healthcare, Eli Lilly & Company is calling 2023 an “inflection point” and “a chance to expand our impact on patients and growth potential as an R&D-driven biopharma company,” and in tech, Amazon is “working really hard to streamline our costs [without] giving up on the long-term strategic investments that we believe can change Amazon over the long term.” While budgets are being slashed, executives are exceptionally clear on the need to preserve investments in firm-wide transformation. 

4. Commitments to environmental, social and governance (ESG) strategies are even more paramount in 2023. 

Pandemic-born ESG strategies were reinforced this earnings season despite a tough macroeconomic climate. Many leaders dedicated time to showing investors how they are measuring up on ESG metrics, such as decarbonization, and activating their investments in the market through new products, solutions and partnerships.  

This is especially relevant given the heightened investment from governments and the private sector in decarbonization, which has the potential to catalyze a mini-boom cycle in the “green” economy. To that end, the industrial sector was particularly vocal on the need to meet “growing customer demand for innovative and more sustainable solutions” (Dow) and “accelerate our transition to a low carbon green economy” (Trane Technologies.) It is clear that economic distress is not enough to dissuade businesses from the imperative of implementing an ESG strategy, especially as consumers are ever more watchful. 

5. People and teams are imperative to the 2023 turnaround as leaders articulated the importance of building a strong employer brand. 

Layoffs are an unfortunate outcome when growth reverses, such as when the pandemic growth bubble popped in 2022. However, executives are now focusing on the path forward as they highlighted strategies to strengthen their core business, better align operating models to their go-to-market strategy and empower remaining employees. Donald Macpherson, chief executive officer at Grainger commented on the need to “strengthen our purpose-driven culture by ensuring Grainger is a place where our team members can be their true selves and have a fulfilling career”, while Bill Rogers, chief executive officer at Truist pointed to leveraging “our increased capacity, expanded capabilities and talented teammates to actualize our purpose.” 

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Earlier this year, Target Corporation lost nearly 25% of its $100B market capitalization following a disappointing earnings report. A few weeks later, the stock fell again as the company announced that it would be reducing prices due to rapidly increasing inventories. Walmart, a retailer four times larger than Target, lost 20% of its value over the same period claiming changing consumer behaviors and continued supply chain challenges were responsible. Shockwaves spread across the retail landscape as markets scrambled to process the impact of underlying trends. This may have you wondering: “In a world spinning with constant news of inflation, spiking energy costs and supply-side woes, why would deflationary trends like ramping inventories be hitting some of the world’s largest businesses?”  

If your business is consumer products, many challenges of the pandemic era have become abundantly clear: hiccups at the top of the supply chain due to lockdowns, shortages in shipping containers and port infrastructure, a massive transition from consumption of services to goods and housing and breaking news every week are impacting all these factors as they shift and churn. While understanding how all these dynamic inputs impact your bottom line might seem like an impossible machine, they all boil down to one core concept: forecasting consumer demand.  

Whatever the incarnation, be it sales operations, inventory, or revenue management, it is someone’s job to predict future demand as input to a variety of investment and staffing decisions. It can be done terribly, as a trendline of historic quarterly sales with a seasonal adjustment applied—an approach completely unable to respond to a shifting macro environment. It can also be done incredibly well, with dynamic tools in the hands of multiple stakeholders sitting on real-time data that responds to the slightest change in consumer preference, sentiment or spending power.  

Below, we outline three key elements to building successful demand forecasts that will keep the pulse of consumer engagement no matter how unpredictable the world can be.  

1. Look to First Party Digital Data for an Accurate View of Individual Customer Behaviors Over Time 

The first thing to note: Organizations need to use web and/or app engagement data as the foundation, ideally first-party data blended with media exposure and eCRM for a more holistic view across the customer lifecycle. These data types are most critical and valuable due to their real-time nature and reflection of active shopping behavior. After all, if a consumer is no longer interested in buying a product from you, they won’t be visiting your website to read about it. This is the signal you want. It is also important to have data tracked via a robust web analytics platform (such as Google Analytics or Adobe Analytics) collected via a logged-in state or a first-party cookie. This will enable consistent visibility into the same consumer’s behavior over multiple visits, especially if your products have a longer consideration cycle.  

Additionally, having a good tagging strategy and metadata is critical. Organizations will want data scientists to mine the data to understand exactly what users were engaging with at each stop across digital properties. One of the big mistakes we’ve seen among companies who use digital data for demand prediction today is that they look at all the behaviors on aggregate, which can mask a dip or rise in demand behind outlier behaviors. Organizations’ goal should be to predict the demand for each individual and then aggregate demand at the other end. Otherwise, they risk forecasting inordinate demand for a single consumer or household.  

Also, strive to migrate complex engagement data (“log-level” data) into a flexible big-data environment. This should be done so that data science models and business applications can be easily built on top of it. A good example of this would be the big-data warehousing products within any of the ‘big three’ cloud providers (AWS, GCP and Azure).  

While it might sound like a lot, most mid-to-large-sized organizations already have most of the key elements in place and will simply require a few small pieces to complete the puzzle. Building the infrastructure can take as little as three weeks or as long as three months, depending upon the current maturity and toolkit. But the value is there: Many companies who accurately predicted the Covid-19 demand shock and subsequent demand spike did so by getting real-time signals from individual consumers based on changing digital engagement with their brands and products.  

2. Empower Data Scientists and Engineers to Design and Automate New Demand Models—but Don’t Sleep on Strategy.  

Another lesson every business has learned over the past decade is that all the data in the world is worth nothing if you don’t know how to use it. A small, dedicated task force of data scientists, engineers and at least one strategist is ideal for building this capability.  

The strategist role is critical for developing any sort of data science application, akin to a product manager but with more specialized skills to serve as a subject-matter expert on digital data and sources. This person acts as a steward of the business to ensure data scientists and engineers have the appropriate context in designing their analysis and setting up the infrastructure to support it. “Demand” as a concept isn’t one-size-fits-all. Multiple ideas and approaches need to be evaluated and prioritized over the course of the project. With that in mind, the strategist also acts as a liaison to the stakeholder teams when decisions need to be made regarding proxy measures, model outputs and historical techniques for comparison.  

Data scientists ensure the data is organized to interpret cause and effect, that the model is as accurate as possible, and that the output is responsive to new information entering the ecosystem. If they’re working in a cloud environment, they will have access to data processing tools and ML-as-a-service. The data science team will likely lean on those tools and their native integrations with the data platforms to develop scalable and up-to-date demand models.  

Data engineer(s) should ideally have expertise in ML Ops and some exposure to digital analytics and demand-side platforms, as source data can be somewhat ugly and difficult to work with. Key tasks for this team will be the processing of source data, staging of data for analysis (and eventually reporting) and automating the model outputs. The latter is of critical importance, since getting updated forecasts frequently is the key to understanding shifting trends and reacting before it’s too late.  

Working together, this team can generate not just improved demand forecasts to inform downstream applications such as inventory, but also outputs powering higher-funnel tactics such as dynamic creative optimization and offer management. Keeping the team online as new capabilities launch and managing a roadmap of prioritized future applications is a great way to get continual value out of your digital infrastructure. 

3. You’ll Need User-Friendly Tools if You Want to Drive Adoption of New Techniques  

The only thing better than having all the smartest tools in the industry: actually using them. Getting the outputs of the organization’s data assets into the hands of decision-makers is just as important as developing those assets themselves. Business intelligence (“BI” or Data Visualization) tools and specialists are the keys to disseminating new data that suits each stakeholder’s needs. BI specialists should work with stakeholders to understand their requirements and with the engineers to produce user-friendly outputs from the models upon which they can design visualizations.  

Reframing team roles and advancing technology and tools allows businesses to democratize critical data and serve business units based on their purpose and key decision points. Regional merchandisers may want to see shifts in demand with the ability to drill down on specific geographies. Others may want broader, national demand (or individual product propensity) visualized alongside incentive, inventory or media spend. Targeting a few stakeholders early who are interested in trying new techniques can be important; building internal advocacy and developing case studies early on can speed up the process of getting new tools to market.  

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In an era marked by the convergence of business and activism, many believe that “silence speaks louder than words.” While silence on environmental, social and governance issues may draw the attention of stakeholders looking for statements, empty words and promises may pose greater risks.  

The pandemic, wildfires, controversial Supreme Court rulings, water shortages, mass shootings and global conflict have shone a bright light on the role of business in society, underscoring the need to integrate ESG into business strategy as stakeholders gravitate towards companies that align with their values.  

As a result, business leaders are dedicating more time to responding to these environmental and social issues – both internally and externally. In fact, 66% of American consumers say their social values shape their shopping choices and 86% of employees prefer to work or support companies that care about the same issues they do. 

See Something, Say Something or Say Nothing? 

Taking a stand (or not taking a stand) will invite attention — both negative and positive. In this piece, we will share our framework on when and how businesses should act on ESG issues with authenticity to avoid risks of being perceived as opportunistic or greenwashing.  

Purpose-led companies with ironclad ESG response strategies have the necessary foundation for success. Those that are investing in environmental issues or social issues as part of their core strategy will have more credibility in proactively engaging in topics in addition to responding to events. For example, Patagonia’s self-imposed Earth tax gives credibility to its proactive and reactive environmental activism, and Ben & Jerry’s ongoing commitment to racial justice supports public stances on social movements. While there is no perfect strategy that will please all stakeholders, keep these principles in mind when thinking about how to engage on issues. 

We understand this is difficult work because we are still figuring it out ourselves. Developing these guidelines has encouraged us to shine a brighter light on our own ESG response strategy. While we are far from perfect and still have a long way to go in our own ESG journey, we have identified five essentials for how to respond and engage authentically.  

1. Know Your Company’s Purpose and Build the ESG Response Strategy 

The foundation of a successful ESG response strategy is dependent on an unwavering brand purpose. Purpose acts as a North Star, guiding a business as it makes difficult decisions. If issue engagement is treated as a temporary initiative rolled out for the sake of promoting goodwill, stakeholders will perceive a company as opportunistic. 

Brand purpose does not have to be one and the same with ESG strategy. However, connecting your ESG response strategy to your purpose and values demonstrates genuine commitment and gives the company credibility to play in the ESG arena.    

For example, Patagonia is a “purpose native” company that has an ESG strategy entwined with its purpose. As a company that sells apparel for exploring the outdoors, it has spearheaded several initiatives to protect and preserve the environment.  

2. Identify Issues Your Stakeholders Care About and That You Can Authentically Engage on 

“The goal is to reinforce existing brand identities on issues that matter to customers and employees. If they’re authentic in what they stand for and they reinforce it consistently, then it’s credible.”

Marisa Mulvihill, partner at Prophet, in the ‘Wall Street Journal’ 

With a new set of issues dominating the news cycle every week, businesses may feel pressure to react to every topic, which could potentially result in missteps if there isn’t a concrete ESG response plan in place. By demonstrating authentic action through a robust ESG response strategy, businesses can build their credibility to make their voices heard on a multitude of issues. 

Conducting a materiality assessment will determine what issues are the most important to your stakeholders, ensuring that your company can focus efforts on the most relevant and authentic ESG issues. To stay attuned to evolving customer behaviors, consistently undertaking market research on customer attitudes can propel companies forward by allowing them to proactively strategize where they can meet the needs of their customers. 

Nike has already successfully leaned into contentious conversations. With its bold advertisement featuring Colin Kaepernick, the company fueled the fire of a subset of customers uncomfortable with the company’s embrace of the athlete. However, its younger, diverse consumers immediately rallied behind the cause, showing that the company had done its research on its core customer group by making a strategic, calculated move to solidify its relationship with them. 

In 2020, Prophet was overwhelmed, in the best way possible, with the discussions within the firm to do more and better in the face of systemic racism, particularly as it impacts the Black community in the U.S. As part of our commitments to promote racial and social equity both within our firm and broader communities, we pledged $4M of pro-bono hours to organizations supporting racial justice. As we continue to work towards achieving this commitment, Prophet’s pro-bono program enables teams to connect their passions and share their expertise to support organizations and movements on the ground. We know that racial justice and equity will never be achieved by one leader or one group alone, but we are using our core competencies and influence to do our part in advancing the cause. 

3. Execute With Commitment to Action and Transparency 

Authenticity is key. How your company executes can make or break a response, even if the issue it is addressing is material to stakeholders. While purpose provides the foundation, concrete action on a promise is crucial for an ESG response strategy that leaves an impact.  

Before taking a stand, ask yourself: Is your company contributing value by engaging? Are you shining a light on the core issue and supporting a solution, or are you detracting from the issue or potentially causing harm? 

There are times in which showing up might be perceived as performative, especially if a company’s past actions paint a conflicting picture, or if the response is perceived as reactionary and disingenuous. Purpose washing — touting shallow commitments for marketing purposes without driving tangible change — is a real risk that can discredit a company’s ESG response strategy. While 73% of consumers say companies must act now for the good of society and the planet, 71% don’t believe companies will deliver on their promises. 

For example, financial services firm State Street was behind the infamous “Fearless Girl” statue on Wall Street, highlighting the need to combat gender inequality. However, further digging unveiled that the company’s gender diversity fund did not always vote in favor of gender diversity or pay equity proposals for the companies it invests in. 

Engaging in issues will pose a risk if there is a gap between what a company says and what it does. However, if a company is ready to show up on issues it hasn’t performed well on, it will need to do so with transparency and commitment to action. 

4. Thoughtfully Balance the Needs of Multiple Stakeholders 

The actions of a company ripple across the full system of stakeholders. When developing a response strategy, it’s crucial to understand the diverse needs of customers, employees, local communities, suppliers and more. If companies decide to act, they will need to evaluate whether to act internally to address the topic with their employees, or also externally to engage with customers and the community.   

Thorny issues often pull in multiple stakeholders at once, with each group having different levels of impact and involvement. When companies were deciding on how their responses to the invasion of Ukraine might impact customers in Russia and across the world, they also needed to consider how to support their employees, especially those who had to leave Ukraine and care for their families. Suspending business in Russia may put pressure on the country, but it also affects civilians trapped in the conflict. 

5. Continually Monitor and Evolve 

Taking a stand doesn’t stop after making an announcement. Action must be continually monitored to understand the impact of your ESG response strategy on stakeholders. Metrics can help you understand how to improve and iterate on your strategy: Did your company’s response support the issue in a way that resonated with the stakeholders who were the most impacted in the issue? How did stakeholders view your company’s response to the issue? Did the response address your stakeholders’ needs? 

Additionally, a company’s response strategy shouldn’t be set in stone. With a relentless influx of issues pulling companies in, the strategy should be dynamic and leverage the expertise of multiple departments within a company to adapt to whatever new challenges arise. In a multi-stakeholder environment, determine who within your company should own the response strategy, whether that be HR, consumer marketing, internal communications or another expertise group. 

Lastly, continue to revisit the approach and assess where you can evolve to meet the changing needs of stakeholders. 

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Companies around the world are acting on the new reality that ESG – environmental, social and governance – has become the next horizon for business leadership. From going ‘all in’ on a particular social mission, to systematically integrating sustainability and social responsibility into their operations, organizations are taking action.  

While ESG was once about compliance and risk mitigation, we believe it is now a requirement for unlocking uncommon growth. And the companies having the greatest success with their ESG strategies are the ones who have created authentic changes in the culture of their full stakeholder ecosystem. 

At Prophet, we view all organizations as a macrocosm of the individual. Each one has a collective DNA, Mind, Body and Soul. To drive meaningful culture change, leaders need to think about every aspect of this system.  

Prophet’s Human-Centered Transformation Model serves as a framework for effectively driving ESG thinking (and doing) into a company’s organization and culture. Let’s take a look at how these four elements can be used to power an authentic ESG strategy and culture from the inside out. 

1. Code ESG Into Your DNA 

Like the DNA of an individual, the DNA of an organization comes to life across every aspect of the business, helping to direct and blueprint any transformation. For some organizations that have been founded with purposeful, inclusive and regenerative business models, that DNA has been ‘coded’ with ESG from the start. For others, it may require some ‘re-programming’:  

Set a powerful, actionable and clearly-defined ESG strategy—and build it pervasively into your company strategy 

The most mature sustainable and socially responsible businesses are incorporating ESG concepts into the core of their strategy. Some examples include equitable and inclusive design of products or circular and regenerative business models. A materiality assessment can help determine which areas of ESG are most relevant to your organization and its external stakeholders—not only from a risk mitigation perspective but shared value creation. How might ESG help fuel transformative and sustainable growth for your business while doing good at the same time? 

Embed ESG into other key organizational frameworks such as purpose, values and employee value proposition 

The more it can be reinforced as a ‘red thread’ woven throughout the company, the better. How might you visibly showcase your commitment to ESG to help attract, retain and engage your talent? 

Enlist leaders in championing ESG from the top 

Vocal support from across the leadership team is critical to signal ESG as a priority. How can you ensure leadership is not only bought in but actively role modeling sustainable and inclusive behaviors, multi-stakeholder collaboration, etc.? 

Some companies such as Allbirds have always had strong ESG DNA. It established itself as a benefit corporation, which shows a high degree of commitment to a strong ESG-centric operating model. Being a B Corp means a company is legally accountable to all its stakeholders – workers, communities, customers, suppliers and the environment – not just shareholders. And this status ensures that the organization will practice stakeholder governance even after capital raises and leadership changes.  

The ESG orientation that’s genetically programmed into its organization ensures Allbirds takes flight in a sustainable way with commitments to regenerative agriculture, renewable materials, carbon neutrality and more. 

2. Set Your MIND to ESG 

Once an organization sets its ESG strategy, it needs to develop the skills to enable the change. A company’s collective Mind is formed from the talent and skills of its people, so you need to train up (and hire up) in a way that supports the organization’s approach to ESG—especially if it requires more of a departure from ‘business as usual:’ 

Identify the specific skills, capabilities and roles needed to support your ESG priorities 

It is important to consider not only technical skills (e.g., climate scientists) but also critical ESG mindsets such as collaborative orientation and coalition-building. How can you upskill and equip your talent to activate your ESG strategy? Where might you need to hire external expertise? 

Align talent systems in service of the transformation 

How can you ensure your talent systems are designed to hire, measure, and manage employees toward activation of the ESG strategy? 

Unilever, for example, was a pioneer in bringing the thinking behind the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals into the multi-national FMCG space. And the company helped build its ‘mental architecture’ to deliver ESG by internally framing the ambition through concepts of more growth, less risk, lower costs, and more trust.  

As part of its internal education program, ‘bringing sustainability to life’ is a key business skill on the curriculum that needs to be mastered. Additionally, brand managers are taught how to think about the best way to get behind the corporate ESG agenda while delivering the distinctive values of their brand – so Ben & Jerry’s can be playful and provocative, while Knorr goes to market with more of an activist eater tonality. 

3. Build Your BODY for ESG 

In addition to upskilling talent for ESG priorities, it is essential to ‘hardwire’ these priorities into the Body of the organization – in a way that creates transparency and accountability. This includes evolutions in the operating model, org structure, processes and tools that are required to actually direct culture change and get the full power of the organization behind a unified approach to achieving specific ESG initiatives: 

Determine the optimal model for ESG governance and goal-setting  

Some organizations deploy a ‘teams of teams’ in a more holacratic fashion to tackle ESG priorities, while others take a more top-down approach, designating a chief sustainability officer (or similar title) to drive the ambition. In either case, a comprehensive measurement system to share, track and report progress toward goals is key. Which model best fits your organization?  

Align incentives to drive cross-functional (and cross-stakeholder) work  

Often, ESG work requires not only cooperation but collaboration between business units, regions, suppliers and even competitors. How might you empower greater collaboration across stakeholders (both inside and outside the company) to ensure the success of ESG initiatives?  

Build inclusivity into your operating model and organization design  

Given that DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) is often a top priority in the “S” of ESG, it is critical that your company is hardwired to practice what it likely preaches. How might you intentionally design (or redesign) aspects of your operating model to elevate underrepresented voices and bring more diverse perspectives to the table? 

Johnson & Johnson is a healthy example of a strong ESG coordination model, with clear top-down direction, and a well-defined operating model for execution. It has clearly prioritized ESG topic areas, revisited annually, that provide a unifying framework for ESG initiatives and teams across the company.  

J&J breaks down its “health for humanity” strategy into key strategic pillars, with metrics and initiatives mapped to each (and executive compensation linked to goal achievement). As for governance, there are focus area leadership roles (e.g., chief sustainability officer, chief DEI officer, etc.), but also a dedicated PMO for coordination across the entire enterprise to ensure a high degree of collaboration. 

4. Inspire socially responsible SOULs 

Finally, winning over the Soul for ESG is all about motivating transformation through shifts in emotions, mindsets, beliefs and behaviors. When it comes to ESG especially, there is an opportunity to truly inspire current and potential employees around an organization’s focus areas, from the environment to inclusivity: 

Consider how you’re engaging your employees in ESG  

While many organizations focus heavily on ESG areas tied most directly to their business model, it is also critical to assess areas that current and prospective talent care deeply about—and would expect their employer to take action against. How might you identify causes that are most inspiring and intrinsically motivating for your talent base? 

Create rituals, symbols and awards that authentically showcase commitment to ESG 

How might you motivate employee behaviors that deliver on your ESG strategy? (e.g., ethics, DEI, sustainability) 

Rapidly share success stories and celebrate progress along the way (not just outcomes) 

Often, ESG commitments such as Net Zero may take multiple years to achieve. How can you inspire belief in your ESG journey along the way? 

Anglo American is creating kindred ESG souls within its organization through a collection of initiatives that inspire employees to feel passion for ‘re-imagining mining to improve people’s lives. Anglo American thoughtfully curates an ongoing feed of well-told verbal and visual success stories about what the organization is doing both within the company itself and within the communities where it operates. Additionally, the organization creates aspiration and symbology for ESG through an annual awards ceremony where employees are recognized for their specific ESG achievements in business and society.  

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