The last few years have proven that disruption is the only “normal” in business. The world is still slogging through seismic plot twists of the previous few years, making inflation, supply chains, Ukraine and hybrid workplaces a critical topic on virtually every corporate agenda.   

While most forecasts call for nothing but grey skies, we disagree. History shows that periods of economic uncertainty heighten innovation and lead to new products, services and business models. After all, companies like General Motors, Microsoft and Electronic Arts formed during recessionary times.  

In 2023 we expect to see new ideas and products emerge from the rubble of disruption we’ve experienced on a global scale. But to get there, c-suite leaders will need to rethink how they lead their organizations.   

We expect the most successful c-suite leaders to lean into these six key leadership trends in the coming year.  

1. Productivity Improvements Will be a Critical Path to Profitability   

Over the last few years, a handful of digitally native organizations have chosen growth over profitability and had ample investors who were happy to take risks on future opportunities.    

Rising interest rates have ended that party. And as a result, investors are pressuring companies to continue to grow and make money or at least commit to concrete paths to profitability.   

Throughout the second half of 2022, many organizations abruptly shifted their focus from growth at all costs, even if that meant risking profitability, to achieving profitability by cost-cutting measures. 

 And while some companies may need to lean into cost-cutting efforts in 2023, more c-suite leaders will look to enhancing productivity within their workforce to achieve sustainable growth and profitability. For these leaders, the productivity improvements will come from technology, data and analytics.  

2. Balancing Short-Term and Future-Back Planning to Drive Sustainable Growth  

Long-term planning will always be a core component of business strategy. But the upheaval of the last few years has made it painfully clear that companies need to speed up the journey from thinking to doing. And that means integrating quick wins with future vision, so that the results you drive today do not hinder your long-term progress. 

Take, for example, Disney’s recent decision to increase prices for park admissions, annual passes and vacation clubs. This decision infuriated loyal Disney fans, who accused the company of price gouging. While the company may have achieved a quick win from this plan, the long-term effects of the decision may slow Disney’s progress toward its vision.  

In 2023, c-suite leaders will need to carefully balance short-term and future-back planning:  

• Short-term planning: This type of planning requires leaders to think and make at the same time. Risks are reduced with small bets to show progress quickly. Using data and behavioral insights, companies can identify things they know, which they can execute now. They can also explore what they think they know with new and near-term concepts. And those efforts will inform what they think, allowing them to hypothesize, and validate along the way.
• Future-back planning: This approach is about creating predictive models of the future, nine years or more out, to model the probable and preferable future. Which levers should a company pull to get there? Might they do better to build, buy or partner? It considers complex elements, such as politics and socioeconomic shifts, so leaders can confidently see where the business fits in the future and the immediate steps they need to take to get there.    

C-suite leaders who successfully lean into this leadership trend will be well-positioned to achieve immediate wins while also investing in the future of their organizations.   

3. Purposeful Data-Driven Decision-Making Will Reduce Risks   

Data-driven decision-making is critical to increasing confidence and reducing risks. And while that’s been true for decades, more and more companies realize they may have too much historical data and need more predictive data to better inform their decisions. As a result, many executives are making different demands of their AI and analytics teams, aiming to sharpen their business strategy.   

But being data-driven in your decision-making is only one part of the equation. During times of uncertainty, it’s essential to be purposeful in utilizing data to inform your decision-making.   

Amazon has long aced this approach, using analytics to evaluate whether a decision is a one-way-door or a two-way-door.    

Two-way-door decisions are safer and relatively easy decisions to reverse. For example, if the pricing strategy for a new service is hindering performance, it is possible to right-size and reposition the offering or pricing strategy.    

One-way door decisions are more complex, nearly impossible to undo, and require rigorous scrutiny. For instance, a company that misjudges the demand for a product or service has no opportunity to take that decision back. These decisions require rigor and high confidence levels that predictive data modeling can provide.    

In constrained business environments, risky decision-making can be detrimental to the success of your organization, which is why it is more critical than ever to understand the true impact of the decision and be purposeful in how you evaluate the opportunity.   

4. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Regulations Will Require Businesses to Rethink Their Global Approach 

There was a time when everyone building a global business and a global brand thought they could have one approach that would work across different countries: One operating model. One brand positioning. One value proposition. That time is over. Every country has divergent priorities, consumers and governments requiring differentiated business strategies.   

Consider the increase in ESG regulations that have surfaced globally. For example, the European Union (EU) recently passed the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). This new directive will soon require large companies that meet specific requirements or are listed on EU-regulated markets to disclose environmental and social metrics across their supply chains. It will also hold these companies legally responsible for their ESG commitments. To meet CSRD targets, large companies doing business in the EU will have to rethink their supply chains and operations and their entire value chain from product and service design to business models and innovation.   

And in the U.S., the Securities and Exchange Commission’s new proposed rule amendments will require domestic and foreign companies to disclose climate-related risks, governance of climate-related risks, greenhouse gas emissions, climate-related financial statement metrics, and information about climate-related targets and goals.  

Global businesses need to ditch their one-size-fits-all approach to international expansion to meet evolving government regulations and consumer preferences. Instead, these companies will need to find new innovative ways to tailor their brands, business strategies and operations to meet the diverse needs of each market. 

5. New Models of Production Will Unlock Sustainability, Efficiency and Customer Intimacy   

The era of mass production may be ending right in front of our eyes. As a result, we’re seeing a new leadership trend emerge from the c-suite: decentralization. Not only is this a solution for the supply chain challenges it is also a more sustainable and efficient way to impact local communities.    

Many leaders also realize that decentralization can get their products into the hands of their customers in a quicker and more sustainable way. Localized production also allows for co-creation with their customers, improving service and a low-cost path to differentiated and more relevant product offerings.   

There are risks, however. Getting decentralization right will require leaders to closely re-examine their operating models, decision rights, and leadership skills. Without leadership setting a solid direction for the organization, leaders risk efficiency without innovation or innovation without efficiency.   

6. Leaders Will Walk a Tight(er) Rope When It Comes to Political Issues   

The purpose-driven gospel of recent years insists that companies take a stand on issues–or risk losing employees and customers. But figuring out how to do so keeps CEOs, CPOs and CMOs up at night.     

BlackRock’s struggles are emblematic of this challenge. Six states (thus far) have yanked billions in investments from the world’s largest money manager, protesting its commitment to environmental and social change.    

Over the last few years, organizations have been called upon to take a stance on hot-topic political issues ranging from healthcare to ESG. But taking a stance (or not) has become more complicated as companies increasingly navigate accusations of being either too woke or not woke enough.    

In the year ahead, leaders will strive to sort out political agendas with three different pathways:    

• Publicly support political issues     
• Stay silent on political issues     
• Show support for political issues within their workforce policies without publicly supporting the cause     

Regardless of where you or your company stand, the decision to engage publicly on political issues needs to consider the full range of potential consequences that might arise. Speaking out quickly might feel good in the first 24 hours, but unintentionally create outcomes that fly in the face of the very values you espouse. 

Chief marketing officers are looking to the year ahead with caution as the story of the economy plays out through 2023. While growing economic uncertainty means almost nothing will be predictable, it also creates opportunities for leaders to shine by doing more with less and leaning heavily into creativity and innovation. On the one hand, CMOs feel pressured to keep in step. They want to move faster and are looking for ways to add speed and tactical agility. But they’re moving more thoughtfully, too. They want to deepen their connections with people at a time when consumers are more conscious about their spending. Importantly, they feel well equipped “to go into battle” as they can lean back on lessons learned from the beginning of the pandemic. 

While building a strong brand is always critical, it becomes more important during economic downturns. When presented with brand choices, consumers are more likely to stick with brands they know and trust–even when given lower-priced options. So CMOs are questioning which moves will best strengthen trust with their existing customer base while finding ways to resonate with more consumers. 

In the coming year, we expect CMOs to: 

1. Flex Into Expanded Roles 

Their titles haven’t changed, but marketers recognize that their sphere of influence is shifting. The marketing function is no longer just responsible for using marketing to deliver value to the organization. They must prove and demonstrate how while taking on more ownership of the growth agenda. That includes uncovering new pockets of growth and figuring out new audiences and opportunities. 

As board-level expectations rise about marketing’s ability to prove its value, CMOs become integrators. They are bringing together different functions, from sales to product to ESG. This expanded responsibility for growth means moving beyond marketing key performance indicators to commercial KPIs, substantiating their impact on growth.  

And that means marketers must embrace a different language, leaving marketing jargon behind as they translate everything they do into the lexicon of business value. 

2. Refocus on Existing Customers Through Their Post-Purchase Journeys 

In times of economic uncertainty, companies should shore up their customer base, exploring new ways to drive loyalty. In lean times, brands must find ways to build trust and stay top-of-mind. Creating better customer experiences is a sure bet. 

The more companies invest in customer experience, the more they learn how to improve it. That means they’re making sure CX is brand-led, differentiated and personalized. The shift comes from seeing CX less as a defensive exercise and more as a positive relationship builder. It’s a way to expand the brand definition, bringing customers closer to its purpose. It creates more meaningfully engaged communities that act as stores of value during challenging economic times and sources of advocacy when conditions improve. 

Only data can inform that level of intimacy, so CMOs are becoming more outspoken about ineffective corporate data strategies. They’re learning that an overabundance of data often means they can’t thread the needle. And they’re constantly re-evaluating the role analytics play in the marketing organization, aligning marketing technology to produce more meaningful insights. 

It’s not just about having the right data. It’s also about having the right talent and teams in place to support the shifting needs of the business. We expect CMOs to continue to prioritize adding insight and experienced professionals who know how to ask the right questions of data and uncover insights that drive growth. 

3. Hold the Line on Brand Versus Performance Marketing Budgets 

The mix matters. And it requires extra attention in bumpy economies. Many companies are already slipping into fear-based budgeting, tipping into demand marketing at the expense of brand initiatives. It’s easy to do so at a moment when the rest of the C-suite is begging for quick results.  

But it’s also a mistake. And the most effective CMOs will make a case for sticking to the 60/40 rule, even as they find better ways to integrate brand as a growth engine. 

And they’ll increase efforts in key areas: 

1. Experimentation: Under budgetary pressure, it’s tempting to back away from unproven channels. Those that continue to test and learn will see the best long-term growth results versus relying solely on quickly outdated benchmarks. But with the stepped-up scrutiny on budgets, experimentation should be agile. It’s okay to redeploy resources if the tests aren’t delivering results.  
2. Channel Strategy: Social media is changing so fast that it requires teams to constantly refine goals and tactics. As TikTok becomes mainstream, Twitter (and new competition) evolves, YouTube gains clout and the metaverse beckons, brands need to constantly chart new directions. Few brands can–or should–be everywhere. But they all need to know how and why their customers use social.  
3. Reporting: Tracking and socializing results should be done through business outcomes, not marketing metrics. This makes it more possible to connect brand and demand performance. No one in the board room wants to hear about clicks. The point of reporting is to evaluate past performance and make better, more effective strategic decisions for future efforts, getting the most out of limited resources. 

4. Welcome More ESG Moves into the Marketing Tent 

As governments, investors, employees and customers demand more accountability, environmental, social and governance policies are under the microscope–and their weaknesses are showing. Marketers can and should take on more, addressing the many ways ESG issues directly impact brand value. More CMOs are putting sustainability commitments and public announcements on the front of bottles, addressing it in packaging and formulation.  

They’re becoming more aware of how vulnerable brands are to greenwashing claims. That means focusing on the key proof points needed to substantiate ESG efforts.  

But most importantly, CMOs recognize that ESG has become a customer preference and a strong one. People want companies to make less harmful products and to behave responsibly. It’s no longer possible to think that only subsets of consumers care about the planet or labor practices. It’s a trend that will only intensify. 

We’ll see more businesses realize that ESG shouldn’t be thought of as a single set of initiatives. It’s a commitment a company makes, which then translates into many facets of operation and consumer engagement. 

5. Rewrite Their Personal Purpose 

Many CMOs are facing a significant amount of internal and external headwinds which can lead to a sense of frustration by not being able to deliver the impact they’re looking to achieve. While their creative energy and strategic skills may have propelled them to the top job, the harsh challenges of the last few years have sucked much of the fun out of their careers. Bludgeoned by the Great Resignation, skirmishes over hybrid work policies, positions that seem unfillable and looming economic storm clouds, many feel more like survivors than visionaries. They have less freedom to be creative. And motivating teams while managing department-wide burnout takes much more of their time than it once did. 

While the last few years may have presented a number of challenges, there’s ample opportunity to start taking their purpose-branding lessons to heart and redefining their career goals. Expect to see CMOs applying the lessons from tough times to dig deeper for motivation and find new ways to reignite their passion for marketing. Their goal is to transform resilience from a corporate buzzword to a personal mantra. 

This has been a year for brands to shine in big ways–and fall in even bigger ones. It has also been a year of impressive brand heroics, with record-setting generosity, expanded inclusivity and high-octane comebacks. We’ve seen more companies spin pandemic-era lessons into smart marketing moves, using brand purpose and customer engagement to achieve impressive levels of relevance.  

Many brands unleashed their inner value propositions, from EVs coming out of Detroit to the inspiration named Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the hard-charging prowess of HBO Max and Hulu. And many took the world by surprise, like the brilliance of BeReal and the reimagination of “ugly” shoe brands such as Crocs and New Balance. It’s also been a blast to see Harry and Taylor rise (again) and watch the coming-out party for AB InBev. All in, 2022 found plenty of unexpected ways to win hearts, minds and wallets, especially in an unstable economy.  

With as many brand winners, we saw an equal number that either missed the mark or raised more questions than answers. Elon Musk imploded, tainting Twitter and Tesla. Then there was FIFA’s continued corruption and Ticketmaster’s monopolistic nightmares coming true. Singer Jax revealed the truth about Victoria’s Secret, Shopify lost some magic and Beyond Meat failed to meet the moment. Big Oil garnered record profits while most of the world struggled at the gas pump, and questions about Meta(verse) abound. Many brands are ending the year trying to climb out of big holes. 

That said, I went to my amazing Prophet colleagues from around the world to get their take. For the tenth straight year, they delivered, producing close to 100 nominees. A dozen stand out, all with lessons for marketers as we head into 2023. 

The 2022 Brand Winners  

Airbnb 

This hospitality company continues to expand its frame of reference with a super-inclusive approach and stream of updated offers. This includes a new listing service in the U.S. that allows renters to offer their apartments for short-term sublets, just as homeowners can. And its categories feature is a genius way of browsing. Why not stay in homes that are 10,000 feet above sea level, built into caves or with amazing pools? Even as rival VRBO comes on strong with consistently powerful marketing of its own, Airbnb continues to redefine what it means to be a creative traveler. 

Patagonia 

In a world full of Mars-bound billionaires, Founder and Chief Executive Yvon Chouinard donated the entire organization to Planet Earth. By giving his $3 billion company to a foundation that will devote all profits to the environment, he invented a Triple Crown for branding: Epic generosity, the most significant investment in brand purpose ever and a competitive difference none can match. Bravo Patagonia! 

Taylor Swift 

Few performers–and fewer women–have built a brand as strong, enduring and appealing as Taylor Swift. Her tightly controlled record releases with a host of product tie-ins (the record clock) show that no one else is calling the shots. And in an acid test for all brands, she’s expertly steering through her part in the epic Ticketmaster fiasco, reaching out to fans to heal the damage.  

YouTube 

YouTube, the Google-owned social media platform that’s also the world’s second-largest search engine, outdid itself this year, proving its relevance as never before. It surpassed Netflix in global streaming watch time. And it sharpened its support for creators, launching monetization for shorts and providing a much better deal on revenue sharing than TikTok. It’s barreling into live shopping. And it surpassed 80 million music and premium subscribers, up 30 million in one year.  

BeReal 

This social platform appeared out of thin air and captured an audience of 74 million with its two-minute window of authenticity. Radically different from competitors, it finally gives young fans the ability to shake off that phony Instagram vibe. And like Wordle, which won big love last year by asking for so little, BeReal is fast becoming a daily ritual for increasingly anti-social young people. Is it sustainable? That may be a meaningful question for marketers. Gen Z could care less.  

AB InBev 

OK, Budweiser and the AB InBev stable of beers have been languishing stateside for years. But a moment on the giant stage of the FIFA World Cup gave Budweiser a chance to shine, making it the beverage of choice for pro-Western democracies. When Qatar banned beer sales just days before the tournament, Budweiser’s quick-witted response made sure its $75 million sponsorship didn’t go to waste, with its promise to donate all that beer to the winning country with a smart new campaign, “Bring Home the Bud”.  

The 2022 Brand Losers  

Twitter 

Unsurprisingly, Elon Musk and Twitter are No. 1 on the most bad-brand lists. But the real loser may turn out to be Tesla. Musk’s reign of terror at Twitter transformed his personal brand from disruptor to dirtbag, a reputational body blow that may follow him forever. With massive layoffs, his gutting of the unprofitable social media company has resulted in plunging ad revenues. Hate speech on the platform is soaring as customers flee: In the first week of Musk’s control, Twitter lost 1 million users. 

Tesla 

Elon may have also believed Tesla, long a darling of the tech world, was immune. But there may be little overlap between the free-speech absolutists who love him on social media and Tesla’s affluent planet-conscious customer base. Tesla sales are declining, pressured by cheaper competition and anti-Elon-ism. And its stock price keeps dropping, falling 50%–well below the overall market. 

Adidas 

Adidas first formed a partnership with Kanye West, now known as Ye, in 2013, earning plenty of sales and enviable cultural relevance. The relationship deteriorated, and Adidas reportedly has been looking for an exit for four years. But by waiting until Ye spiraled into overtly antisemitic tirades, Adidas calls its commitment to purpose into question. In some ways, it is understandable: Yeezy products brought in $2 billion in sales or 8% of its revenue. But the delay is inexcusable–perhaps more so because of the founders’ apparent ties to the Nazi party. Will Adidas bounce back? Of course. It’s one of the world’s biggest sporting brands. Will consumers ever believe its purpose blather, all about integrity and diversity? That remains to be seen. 

FIFA 

This global organization has been engulfed in corruption scandals for so long that it’s hard to imagine the brand faring worse. Yet this year’s FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 vaulted it to new levels of disgrace. The selection of tiny Qatar, triggering human rights, a bigoted stance on the LGBTQ+ community and more corruption accusations proved that the ugliest organization represents the beautiful game. 

Victoria’s Secret 

The world’s largest underwear brand is halfway through an ambitious five-year makeover aimed at erasing decades of sexism and misogyny. Some might say it’s working: Sales are rising, and it’s launched new and more inclusive marketing–there are even reports it may reintroduce its fashion shows. But the popularity of Jax’s “Victoria’s Secret” exposes how many younger consumers still take issue with the unrealistic body image standards that the brand is so well known for promoting. And the $400 million acquisition of AdoreMe, the direct-to-consumer dynamo, seems like an admission that it doesn’t know how to talk to Gen Z. 

FTX/Crypto 

While FTX’s $32 billion meltdown is deservedly getting much attention, the entire crypto market has taken a terrible hit. And certainly, the 30-year-old Sam Bankman-Fried is a Madoff-level conman. But we’d like to call out the mainstream press, including the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, that lauded him as an altruist. While some brands will weather the crypto collapse, the entire regulatory apparatus that allowed FTX to happen deserves condemnation. And it likely set retail investing back a generation.